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Primera A · Clausura - 16

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin

· Estadio Atanasio Girardot

Alin prediction Atletico Nacional to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico NacionalDrawIndependiente Medellin
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.77.
  • RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Best market odds
Atletico Nacional1.82 Draw3.80 Independiente Medellin4.33

Price as of

Expected return at 1.82: +4.5% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin preview

Atletico Nacional faces Independiente Medellin with a 70% chance of winning according to our model. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which occurs 11% of the time. Atletico Nacional has an expected goals figure of 2.39, while Independiente Medellin sits at 0.88.

However, recent form shows Atletico Nacional with mixed results, having won 3 out of their last 6 matches, while Independiente Medellin has won 2 of their last 6. The head-to-head record favors Atletico Nacional, who have 3 wins and 4 draws in their last 7 encounters against Independiente Medellin, who have yet to secure a win in this matchup. This could impact the outcome, making it less predictable.

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico NacionalDrawIndependiente Medellin
Model71%19%10%
Market53%25%22%
Published57%23%19%
Edge+5%-2%-3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atletico Nacional below our published probability: +4.7 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.82, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.5% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Nacional, 9 snapshots since 2026-10-20.

Opened 1.79Now 1.75 -0.04
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico Nacional1.791.75-0.04
Draw3.533.70+0.17
Independiente Medellin4.184.15-0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.32Atletico Nacional
0.77Independiente Medellin
Total expected goals
3.08
Attack rating (Atletico Nacional / Independiente Medellin)
1.46 / 1.03
Defence rating (Atletico Nacional / Independiente Medellin)
0.75 / 1.13

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.4% 2.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 1 9.8% 8.9% 3.1% 0.8% 0.2% 2 12.3% 9.4% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 3 9.5% 7.3% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2% 4+ 9.5% 7.3% 2.8% 0.7% 0.2%

Rows: Atletico Nacional goals. Columns: Independiente Medellin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 82%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
49%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico Nacional57%1.74
Draw23%4.27
Independiente Medellin19%5.22
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.68
Under 2.540%2.47
Both teams to scoreYes49%2.04
No51%1.96
Double chance1X (Atletico Nacional or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)77%1.31
X2 (draw or Independiente Medellin)43%2.35
Handicap -1Atletico Nacional win by 2+49%2.04
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Atletico Nacional and Independiente Medellin recent form

Atletico Nacional 3W 2D 1L
Independiente Medellin 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico Nacional at home

Record (W-D-L)
15-3-0
Win rate
83%
Goals for / match
2.44
Goals against / match
0.44
Clean sheets
10 of 18
  • They have won 26 of their 38 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 38 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 38 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente Medellin away

Record (W-D-L)
6-4-5
Win rate
40%
Goals for / match
1.47
Goals against / match
1.33
Clean sheets
3 of 15
  • They have won 14 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Nacional at home only, Independiente Medellin away only.

Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Atletico Nacional 3 · draws 4 · Independiente Medellin 0.

Atletico NacionalDrawsIndependiente Medellin
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-04-12Independiente Medellin2-3Atletico NacionalPrimera A
2025-12-04Atletico Nacional2-1Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2025-11-23Independiente Medellin0-0Atletico NacionalPrimera A
2025-10-26Atletico Nacional5-2Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2025-09-07Independiente Medellin3-3Atletico NacionalPrimera A
2025-05-04Independiente Medellin1-1Atletico NacionalPrimera A
2025-03-23Atletico Nacional1-1Independiente MedellinPrimera A

Other Clausura - 16 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Atletico Nacional to win Predicted score 2 – 0 C Bet on Atletico Nacional
Our pick: Atletico Nacional to win 18+ Bet Now