Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto preview
Bucaramanga faces Deportivo Pasto with a 73% chance of winning, while Pasto has just a 7% probability. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with Bucaramanga's expected goals of 2.03 compared to Pasto's 0.49. This suggests a strong advantage for Bucaramanga.
However, recent form shows Bucaramanga has two draws and a loss in their last three matches, while Deportivo Pasto has a win in their last three. This inconsistency could affect the outcome. Additionally, the model indicates a 46% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 34% likelihood for both teams to score, highlighting the potential for surprises in the match.
Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto: model vs market
| Source | Bucaramanga | Draw | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73% | 20% | 7% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 73% | 20% | 7% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 0.49.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Bucaramanga and Deportivo Pasto expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.51
- Attack rating (Bucaramanga / Deportivo Pasto)
- 1.20 / 0.57
- Defence rating (Bucaramanga / Deportivo Pasto)
- 0.87 / 1.20
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bucaramanga goals. Columns: Deportivo Pasto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 34%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bucaramanga | 73% | 1.37 |
| Draw | 20% | 5.03 | |
| Deportivo Pasto | 7% | 14.38 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 34% | 2.92 |
| No | 66% | 1.52 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bucaramanga or draw) | 93% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Pasto) | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bucaramanga win by 2+ | 48% | 2.08 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bucaramanga and Deportivo Pasto recent form
Bucaramanga
3W 2D 1L
Deportivo Pasto
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bucaramanga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-9-1
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.88
- Goals against / match
- 0.81
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pasto away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-8
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.24
- Goals against / match
- 1.88
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bucaramanga at home only, Deportivo Pasto away only.
Bucaramanga vs Deportivo Pasto head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Bucaramanga 1 · draws 1 · Deportivo Pasto 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-06 | Deportivo Pasto | 0-0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-11-14 | Deportivo Pasto | 3-0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-05-25 | Bucaramanga | 2-1 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 5 fixtures
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- Chico vs Junior — team news & stats 2026-10-28
- Once Caldas v Alianza Valledupar — match page 2026-10-28
- Internacional de Bogota vs Independiente Medellin 2026-10-29
- America de Cali vs Fortaleza FC — team news & stats 2026-10-29
- Atletico Nacional v Santa Fe — match page 2026-10-30
- Deportivo Pereira v Jaguares — match page 2026-10-30
Before and after this match
- Bucaramanga, previous: Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga prediction
- Deportivo Pasto, previous: Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto prediction