Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga preview
In the match between Santa Fe and Bucaramanga, the 1X2 probabilities show Santa Fe at 38%, a draw at 32%, and Bucaramanga at 31%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 12% chance according to our model. Santa Fe's expected goals are 1.17, while Bucaramanga's are 1.04, indicating a close contest.
However, the recent form of both teams could impact the outcome. Santa Fe has a mixed record with L-W-W-L-W-L, while Bucaramanga is more consistent with D-D-W-W-W-D. Additionally, both teams to score stands at 46%, suggesting the potential for goals, but the low Over 2.5 goals probability at 38% indicates a tighter match could unfold.
Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga: model vs market
| Source | Santa Fe | Draw | Bucaramanga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 32% | 28% |
| Market | 49% | 28% | 23% |
| Published | 47% | 29% | 24% |
| Edge | -2% | +1% | +1% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.91, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.7% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Santa Fe and Bucaramanga expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.18
- Attack rating (Santa Fe / Bucaramanga)
- 1.00 / 1.20
- Defence rating (Santa Fe / Bucaramanga)
- 0.80 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Santa Fe goals. Columns: Bucaramanga goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Fe | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.45 | |
| Bucaramanga | 24% | 4.12 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.70 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.24 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Santa Fe or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Bucaramanga) | 53% | 1.88 | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Fe win by 2+ | 18% | 5.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Santa Fe and Bucaramanga recent form
Santa Fe
4W 0D 2L
Bucaramanga
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Santa Fe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-7-3
- Win rate
- 47%
- Goals for / match
- 1.79
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 19
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Bucaramanga away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-6-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Santa Fe at home only, Bucaramanga away only.
Santa Fe vs Bucaramanga head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Santa Fe 1 · draws 2 · Bucaramanga 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Bucaramanga | 1-2 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2025-12-09 | Santa Fe | 0-0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-11-19 | Bucaramanga | 1-0 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2025-08-10 | Bucaramanga | 2-1 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2025-03-19 | Santa Fe | 1-1 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats 2026-10-10
- Junior v Internacional de Bogota — match page 2026-10-10
- Jaguares v Deportes Tolima — match page 2026-10-11
- Chico v Cucuta — match page 2026-10-11
- America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto 2026-10-23
Before and after this match
- Santa Fe, previous: Santa Fe v Jaguares analysis
- Santa Fe, next: Atletico Nacional vs Santa Fe: odds and pick
- Bucaramanga, previous: Chico – Bucaramanga, 2026-10-23
- Bucaramanga, next: Bucaramanga v Deportivo Pasto analysis