Millonarios vs Jaguares preview
In the fixture between Millonarios and Jaguares, Millonarios has a 74% chance to win, while Jaguares stands at just 9%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 2.28 for Millonarios and 0.97 for Jaguares. This suggests a strong performance from Millonarios, who have been drawing frequently with a recent form of D-D-D-W-W-D.
However, the recent head-to-head shows that Jaguares won the last encounter, which could influence the outcome. Additionally, while there is a 63% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance for both teams to score, any unexpected defensive errors or a sudden improvement in Jaguares' form could lead to different results.
Millonarios vs Jaguares: model vs market
| Source | Millonarios | Draw | Jaguares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 66% | 20% | 14% |
| Market | 76% | 16% | 8% |
| Published | 74% | 17% | 9% |
| Edge | -11% | +4% | +6% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.28 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Millonarios vs Jaguares odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Millonarios, 7 snapshots since 2026-10-14.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Millonarios | 1.21 | 1.21 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.50 | 5.85 | +0.35 |
| Jaguares | 12.25 | 12.18 | -0.07 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Millonarios and Jaguares expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.25
- Attack rating (Millonarios / Jaguares)
- 1.15 / 1.13
- Defence rating (Millonarios / Jaguares)
- 0.87 / 1.41
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Millonarios vs Jaguares score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Millonarios goals. Columns: Jaguares goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Millonarios vs Jaguares goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Millonarios vs Jaguares
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Millonarios | 74% | 1.35 |
| Draw | 17% | 5.89 | |
| Jaguares | 9% | 10.90 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.71 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Millonarios or draw) | 91% | 1.10 |
| 12 (either side) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| X2 (draw or Jaguares) | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win by 2+ | 44% | 2.28 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Millonarios and Jaguares recent form
Millonarios
2W 4D 0L
Jaguares
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Millonarios at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-5-2
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 15
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Jaguares away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-11
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.21
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Millonarios at home only, Jaguares away only.
Millonarios vs Jaguares head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Millonarios 4 · draws 2 · Jaguares 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Jaguares | 1-0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2024-09-26 | Millonarios | 0-0 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 2024-03-11 | Jaguares | 2-1 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2023-08-13 | Jaguares | 2-0 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2023-02-19 | Millonarios | 2-1 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 2022-08-21 | Millonarios | 2-0 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 2022-05-11 | Jaguares | 1-1 | Millonarios | Copa Colombia |
| 2022-04-22 | Millonarios | 3-0 | Jaguares | Copa Colombia |
| 2022-02-20 | Jaguares | 1-2 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2021-09-26 | Jaguares | 4-3 | Millonarios | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima 2026-10-18
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page 2026-10-18
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe 2026-10-18
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page 2026-10-19
- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar 2026-10-20
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Millonarios, previous: Millonarios vs Once Caldas: odds and pick
- Jaguares, previous: Santa Fe v Jaguares analysis