Bucaramanga vs America de Cali preview
In the match between Bucaramanga and America de Cali, the 1X2 probabilities show Bucaramanga at 38%, America de Cali at 33%, and a draw at 29%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, which occurs 10% of the time. Bucaramanga has an expected goals figure of 1.48, while America de Cali sits at 1.12.
Both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating a decent chance for goals from both sides. However, Bucaramanga has not won any of their last 4 meetings against America de Cali, who won 3 of those encounters. This historical trend could challenge Bucaramanga's chances, despite their recent form showing 3 wins in their last 5 matches.
Bucaramanga vs America de Cali: model vs market
| Source | Bucaramanga | Draw | America de Cali |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 36% | 30% | 35% |
| Published | 38% | 29% | 33% |
| Edge | +9% | -1% | -7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.48 vs 1.13.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
- The market prices Bucaramanga below the model: +8.5 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.70, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Bucaramanga vs America de Cali odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Bucaramanga, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bucaramanga | 2.62 | 2.59 | -0.03 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.10 | +0.00 |
| America de Cali | 2.62 | 2.67 | +0.05 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Bucaramanga and America de Cali expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.61
- Attack rating (Bucaramanga / America de Cali)
- 1.38 / 1.26
- Defence rating (Bucaramanga / America de Cali)
- 0.90 / 0.76
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Bucaramanga vs America de Cali score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Bucaramanga goals. Columns: America de Cali goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Bucaramanga vs America de Cali goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Bucaramanga vs America de Cali
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bucaramanga | 38% | 2.65 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.40 | |
| America de Cali | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Bucaramanga or draw) | 67% | 1.49 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or America de Cali) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Bucaramanga win by 2+ | 22% | 4.46 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Bucaramanga and America de Cali recent form
Bucaramanga
4W 2D 0L
America de Cali
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Bucaramanga at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-8-1
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.93
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
America de Cali away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-7
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.18
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 18 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Bucaramanga at home only, America de Cali away only.
Bucaramanga vs America de Cali head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Bucaramanga 1 · draws 4 · America de Cali 5.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | America de Cali | 2-0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2026-03-06 | America de Cali | 2-1 | Bucaramanga | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| 2025-09-16 | America de Cali | 0-0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
| 2025-09-03 | America de Cali | 2-0 | Bucaramanga | Copa Colombia |
| 2025-08-27 | Bucaramanga | 1-0 | America de Cali | Copa Colombia |
| 2025-02-03 | Bucaramanga | 0-4 | America de Cali | Primera A |
| 2024-11-17 | America de Cali | 0-0 | Bucaramanga | Copa Colombia |
| 2024-10-31 | Bucaramanga | 1-1 | America de Cali | Copa Colombia |
| 2024-08-18 | Bucaramanga | 1-2 | America de Cali | Primera A |
| 2024-02-16 | America de Cali | 0-0 | Bucaramanga | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Millonarios vs Jaguares — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima 2026-10-18
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe 2026-10-18
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page 2026-10-19
- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar 2026-10-20
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Bucaramanga, previous: Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas prediction
- Bucaramanga, next: Chico – Bucaramanga, 2026-10-23
- America de Cali, previous: America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin prediction