Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC preview
In the match between Internacional de Bogota and Fortaleza FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Internacional de Bogota at 47% and Fortaleza FC at 26%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, which aligns with the expected goals of 1.64 for Internacional de Bogota and 1.17 for Fortaleza FC.
However, both teams have struggled recently, with Internacional de Bogota recording three draws and two losses in their last five matches, while Fortaleza FC has three draws and two losses as well. The head-to-head record favors Fortaleza FC, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters. This context could impact the outcome, despite the statistical edge for Internacional de Bogota.
Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC: model vs market
| Source | Internacional de Bogota | Draw | Fortaleza FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 27% | 26% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.64 vs 1.17.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Internacional de Bogota and Fortaleza FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.81
- Attack rating (Internacional de Bogota / Fortaleza FC)
- 0.99 / 0.94
- Defence rating (Internacional de Bogota / Fortaleza FC)
- 1.26 / 1.18
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Internacional de Bogota goals. Columns: Fortaleza FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 57%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Internacional de Bogota | 47% | 2.12 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.74 | |
| Fortaleza FC | 26% | 3.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57% | 1.76 |
| No | 43% | 2.32 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Internacional de Bogota or draw) | 74% | 1.35 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Fortaleza FC) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Internacional de Bogota win by 2+ | 25% | 3.93 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Internacional de Bogota and Fortaleza FC recent form
Internacional de Bogota
1W 3D 2L
Fortaleza FC
0W 5D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Internacional de Bogota at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-6-4
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.59
- Goals against / match
- 1.29
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
Fortaleza FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-9-6
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Internacional de Bogota at home only, Fortaleza FC away only.
Internacional de Bogota vs Fortaleza FC head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Internacional de Bogota 0 · draws 2 · Fortaleza FC 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-03 | Fortaleza FC | 1-1 | Internacional de Bogota | Primera A |
| 2025-10-29 | Internacional de Bogota | 0-1 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2025-09-08 | Fortaleza FC | 1-0 | Internacional de Bogota | Primera A |
| 2025-05-10 | Fortaleza FC | 4-0 | Internacional de Bogota | Primera A |
| 2025-03-22 | Internacional de Bogota | 1-1 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima 2026-10-18
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page 2026-10-18
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe 2026-10-18
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page 2026-10-19
- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar 2026-10-20
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Internacional de Bogota, previous: Junior vs Internacional de Bogota prediction
- Fortaleza FC, previous: Fortaleza FC v Millonarios analysis