Updated

Primera A · Clausura - 14

Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios

· Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogota· Referee Santiago Bismarks

Full time1 – 1

Alin prediction was Millonarios to win

Cmodel only, no market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Fortaleza FCDrawMillonarios

Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceFortaleza FCDrawMillonarios
Model29%29%42%
Market———
Published29%29%42%
Edge———
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).

Fortaleza FC and Millonarios expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.16Fortaleza FC
1.44Millonarios
Total expected goals
2.59
Attack rating (Fortaleza FC / Millonarios)
0.94 / 1.18
Defence rating (Fortaleza FC / Millonarios)
1.23 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 8.7% 9.5% 7.7% 3.7% 1.8% 1 7.4% 13.7% 8.9% 4.3% 2.1% 2 5.0% 7.2% 5.2% 2.5% 1.2% 3 1.9% 2.8% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 4+ 0.7% 1.0% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2%

Rows: Fortaleza FC goals. Columns: Millonarios goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 74%
Over 2.5 48%
Over 3.5 26%
Both teams to score
53%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Fortaleza FC29%3.43
Draw29%3.49
Millonarios42%2.37
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548%2.09
Under 2.552%1.92
Both teams to scoreYes53%1.87
No47%2.15
Double chance1X (Fortaleza FC or draw)58%1.73
12 (either side)71%1.40
X2 (draw or Millonarios)71%1.41
Handicap -1Millonarios win by 2+21%4.78
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Fortaleza FC and Millonarios recent form

Fortaleza FC 0W 4D 2L
Millonarios 2W 4D 0L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Fortaleza FC at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-5-5
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
4 of 16
  • They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

Millonarios away

Record (W-D-L)
4-6-7
Win rate
24%
Goals for / match
1.41
Goals against / match
1.47
Clean sheets
3 of 17
  • They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Fortaleza FC at home only, Millonarios away only.

Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Fortaleza FC 0 · draws 1 · Millonarios 9.

Fortaleza FCDrawsMillonarios
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-31Millonarios2-2Fortaleza FCPrimera A
2025-09-21Millonarios3-2Fortaleza FCPrimera A
2025-04-06Fortaleza FC0-2MillonariosPrimera A
2024-10-17Millonarios2-1Fortaleza FCPrimera A
2024-03-31Fortaleza FC1-2MillonariosPrimera A
2022-08-18Fortaleza FC2-3MillonariosCopa Colombia
2022-07-27Millonarios3-0Fortaleza FCCopa Colombia
2019-03-13Fortaleza FC0-1MillonariosCopa Colombia
2019-02-14Millonarios1-0Fortaleza FCCopa Colombia
2016-08-14Millonarios3-2Fortaleza FCPrimera A

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Before and after this match