Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios preview
Fortaleza FC faces Millonarios in the Primera A, with the model showing a 42% chance of a Millonarios win compared to 29% for Fortaleza FC and 29% for a draw. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which aligns with Millonarios' stronger recent form, having won two of their last six matches, while Fortaleza FC has not secured a win in their last six games.
The statistics suggest a 48% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 53% likelihood for both teams to score. However, Fortaleza's low expected goals of 1.16 compared to Millonarios' 1.43 could lead to fewer goals than anticipated. The confidence grade is C, indicating that these probabilities are based solely on the model.
Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios: model vs market
| Source | Fortaleza FC | Draw | Millonarios |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 29% | 29% | 42% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fortaleza FC and Millonarios expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Fortaleza FC / Millonarios)
- 0.94 / 1.18
- Defence rating (Fortaleza FC / Millonarios)
- 1.23 / 0.87
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fortaleza FC goals. Columns: Millonarios goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fortaleza FC | 29% | 3.43 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.49 | |
| Millonarios | 42% | 2.37 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.87 |
| No | 47% | 2.15 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fortaleza FC or draw) | 58% | 1.73 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Millonarios) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| Handicap -1 | Millonarios win by 2+ | 21% | 4.78 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fortaleza FC and Millonarios recent form
Fortaleza FC
0W 4D 2L
Millonarios
2W 4D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fortaleza FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Millonarios away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-7
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 1.41
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fortaleza FC at home only, Millonarios away only.
Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Fortaleza FC 0 · draws 1 · Millonarios 9.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | Millonarios | 2-2 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2025-09-21 | Millonarios | 3-2 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2025-04-06 | Fortaleza FC | 0-2 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2024-10-17 | Millonarios | 2-1 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
| 2024-03-31 | Fortaleza FC | 1-2 | Millonarios | Primera A |
| 2022-08-18 | Fortaleza FC | 2-3 | Millonarios | Copa Colombia |
| 2022-07-27 | Millonarios | 3-0 | Fortaleza FC | Copa Colombia |
| 2019-03-13 | Fortaleza FC | 0-1 | Millonarios | Copa Colombia |
| 2019-02-14 | Millonarios | 1-0 | Fortaleza FC | Copa Colombia |
| 2016-08-14 | Millonarios | 3-2 | Fortaleza FC | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-09
- Once Caldas vs Llaneros 2026-10-10
- Junior v Internacional de Bogota — match page 2026-10-10
- Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto 2026-10-11
- Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Jaguares v Deportes Tolima — match page 2026-10-11
- America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Chico v Cucuta — match page 2026-10-13