Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Nacional | Draw | Deportivo Pasto |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| Market | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| Published | 77% | 16% | 7% |
| Edge | 0% | 0% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.48 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.24, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Nacional, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Nacional | 1.20 | 1.20 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 5.90 | 5.90 | +0.00 |
| Deportivo Pasto | 13.20 | 13.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.11
- Attack rating (Atletico Nacional / Deportivo Pasto)
- 1.55 / 0.69
- Defence rating (Atletico Nacional / Deportivo Pasto)
- 0.92 / 1.13
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Nacional goals. Columns: Deportivo Pasto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Nacional | 77% | 1.29 |
| Draw | 16% | 6.33 | |
| Deportivo Pasto | 7% | 14.41 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 | 40% | 2.51 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.30 |
| No | 57% | 1.77 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Nacional or draw) | 93% | 1.07 |
| 12 (either side) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Pasto) | 23% | 4.40 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win by 2+ | 56% | 1.79 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto recent form
Atletico Nacional
4W 1D 1L
Deportivo Pasto
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Nacional at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 14-2-0
- Win rate
- 88%
- Goals for / match
- 2.56
- Goals against / match
- 0.50
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 25 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.6 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pasto away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-7
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.81
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Nacional at home only, Deportivo Pasto away only.
Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Atletico Nacional 2 · draws 1 · Deportivo Pasto 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Deportivo Pasto | 1-2 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-10-18 | Deportivo Pasto | 2-2 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-04-30 | Atletico Nacional | 3-0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
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