Updated

Primera A · Clausura - 14

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto

· Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin· Referee Carlos Andrés Márquez Ortega, Colombia

Full time3 – 0

Alin prediction was Atletico Nacional to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

16% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Atletico NacionalDrawDeportivo Pasto

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAtletico NacionalDrawDeportivo Pasto
Model72%21%8%
Market72%19%9%
Published72%19%9%
Edge0%+1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 0.51.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Atletico Nacional, 31 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.20Now 1.28 +0.08
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Atletico Nacional1.201.28+0.08
Draw5.904.95-0.95
Deportivo Pasto13.2010.50-2.70

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.98Atletico Nacional
0.51Deportivo Pasto
Total expected goals
2.49
Attack rating (Atletico Nacional / Deportivo Pasto)
1.33 / 0.60
Defence rating (Atletico Nacional / Deportivo Pasto)
0.86 / 1.06

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 9.1% 3.4% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 1 15.6% 9.2% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 2 16.2% 8.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 3 10.7% 5.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 4+ 8.3% 4.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0%

Rows: Atletico Nacional goals. Columns: Deportivo Pasto goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 91%
Over 1.5 72%
Over 2.5 45%
Over 3.5 24%
Both teams to score
35%
No goals (0–0)
9%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Atletico Nacional72%1.38
Draw19%5.20
Deportivo Pasto9%11.69
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545%2.21
Under 2.555%1.83
Both teams to scoreYes35%2.83
No65%1.55
Double chance1X (Atletico Nacional or draw)91%1.09
12 (either side)81%1.24
X2 (draw or Deportivo Pasto)28%3.60
Handicap -1Atletico Nacional win by 2+46%2.17
Push (exactly one goal)25%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Pasto recent form

Atletico Nacional 2W 2D 2L
Deportivo Pasto 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Atletico Nacional at home

Record (W-D-L)
14-3-0
Win rate
82%
Goals for / match
2.41
Goals against / match
0.47
Clean sheets
9 of 17
  • They have won 26 of their 38 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
  • They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 38 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 38 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Deportivo Pasto away

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-7
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
1.81
Clean sheets
3 of 16
  • They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Nacional at home only, Deportivo Pasto away only.

Expected lineups

Atletico Nacional lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 34 Franco Armani
  2. 20 Milton Casco
  3. 4 César Haydar
  4. 15 Andres Reyes
  5. 31 Xavi Rios
  6. 28 Simon Rojas
  7. 80 Juan Zapata
  8. 36 Jose Rafael Escorcia
  9. 19 Juan Manuel Rengifo
  10. 10 Edwin Cardona
  11. 22 Elías Cabrera

Bench: Matheus Uribe, Nicolás Rodríguez, Elkin Rivero, William Tesillo, Luis Marquinez, Yeicar Perlaza, Kevin Parra, Emanuel Benitez

Deportivo Pasto lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 12 Geovanni Banguera
  2. 27 Hervin Goyes
  3. 5 Nicolas Gil Uribe
  4. 2 Fainer Torijano
  5. 33 Mateo Garavito
  6. 16 Mayer Gil
  7. 25 Franco Leys
  8. 15 Harrinson Mancilla
  9. 8 Enrique Serje
  10. 7 Jonathan Perlaza
  11. 10 Diego Chávez

Bench: Joyce Ossa, Luis Marquínez, John Méndez, Joider Micolta, Patrick Preciado, Yeiler Góez, Santiago Córdoba, Matías Pisano, Julián Quiñones

Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Atletico Nacional 8 · draws 2 · Deportivo Pasto 0.

Atletico NacionalDrawsDeportivo Pasto
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-29Deportivo Pasto1-2Atletico NacionalPrimera A
2025-10-18Deportivo Pasto2-2Atletico NacionalPrimera A
2025-04-30Atletico Nacional3-0Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2024-12-05Atletico Nacional2-1Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2024-11-24Deportivo Pasto0-1Atletico NacionalPrimera A
2024-10-06Deportivo Pasto1-2Atletico NacionalPrimera A
2024-03-24Atletico Nacional1-0Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2023-08-25Atletico Nacional2-0Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2023-06-18Atletico Nacional3-2Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2023-05-20Deportivo Pasto1-1Atletico NacionalPrimera A

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Before and after this match