Updated

Primera A · Clausura - 14

Junior vs Internacional de Bogota

· Estadio Metropolitano Roberto Meléndez, Barranquilla· Referee Diego Ulloa Angulo

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Junior to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
JuniorDrawInternacional de Bogota

Junior vs Internacional de Bogota: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJuniorDrawInternacional de Bogota
Model55%23%22%
Market57%24%19%
Published56%24%19%
Edge-1%0%+1%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.03 vs 1.24.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Junior vs Internacional de Bogota odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Junior, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-05.

Opened 1.64Now 1.63 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Junior1.641.63-0.01
Draw3.873.82-0.05
Internacional de Bogota4.825.00+0.18

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Junior and Internacional de Bogota expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.03Junior
1.24Internacional de Bogota
Total expected goals
3.26
Attack rating (Junior / Internacional de Bogota)
1.16 / 0.92
Defence rating (Junior / Internacional de Bogota)
1.36 / 1.24

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Junior vs Internacional de Bogota score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 4.8% 3.8% 2.9% 1.2% 0.5% 1 6.8% 10.6% 5.9% 2.5% 1.0% 2 7.8% 9.7% 6.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3 5.3% 6.6% 4.1% 1.7% 0.7% 4+ 4.3% 5.3% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5%

Rows: Junior goals. Columns: Internacional de Bogota goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Junior vs Internacional de Bogota goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 95%
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 63%
Over 3.5 41%
Both teams to score
63%
No goals (0–0)
5%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Junior vs Internacional de Bogota

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Junior56%1.77
Draw24%4.15
Internacional de Bogota19%5.14
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.563%1.58
Under 2.537%2.72
Both teams to scoreYes63%1.60
No37%2.67
Double chance1X (Junior or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)76%1.32
X2 (draw or Internacional de Bogota)44%2.30
Handicap -1Junior win by 2+33%3.02
Push (exactly one goal)22%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Junior and Internacional de Bogota recent form

Junior 2W 1D 3L
Internacional de Bogota 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Junior at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-6-4
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.61
Goals against / match
1.22
Clean sheets
6 of 18
  • They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 36 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 11 of 13 penalties (85%).
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Internacional de Bogota away

Record (W-D-L)
2-8-7
Win rate
12%
Goals for / match
0.88
Goals against / match
1.82
Clean sheets
3 of 17
  • They have won 9 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 34 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Junior at home only, Internacional de Bogota away only.

Junior vs Internacional de Bogota head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Junior 5 · draws 4 · Internacional de Bogota 1.

JuniorDrawsInternacional de Bogota
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-29Internacional de Bogota0-1JuniorPrimera A
2025-09-13Junior1-1Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
2025-04-01Internacional de Bogota0-1JuniorPrimera A
2024-10-12Internacional de Bogota1-0JuniorPrimera A
2024-03-30Junior1-0Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
2023-08-20Internacional de Bogota0-0JuniorPrimera A
2023-02-25Junior1-0Internacional de BogotaPrimera A
2022-07-17Internacional de Bogota0-0JuniorPrimera A
2022-03-18Junior3-1Internacional de BogotaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
2022-03-11Internacional de Bogota0-0JuniorCONMEBOL Sudamericana

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Before and after this match