Junior vs Internacional de Bogota: model vs market
| Source | Junior | Draw | Internacional de Bogota |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 55% | 23% | 22% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 57% | 24% | 20% |
| Edge | -3% | -1% | +3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.24.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.65, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Junior vs Internacional de Bogota odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Junior, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Junior | 1.64 | 1.62 | -0.01 |
| Draw | 3.87 | 3.84 | -0.03 |
| Internacional de Bogota | 4.82 | 4.97 | +0.15 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Junior and Internacional de Bogota expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.26
- Attack rating (Junior / Internacional de Bogota)
- 1.16 / 0.92
- Defence rating (Junior / Internacional de Bogota)
- 1.36 / 1.23
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Junior vs Internacional de Bogota score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Junior goals. Columns: Internacional de Bogota goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Junior vs Internacional de Bogota goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 63%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Junior vs Internacional de Bogota
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Junior | 57% | 1.77 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.18 | |
| Internacional de Bogota | 20% | 5.13 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 2.5 | 37% | 2.72 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63% | 1.60 |
| No | 37% | 2.67 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Junior or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Internacional de Bogota) | 43% | 2.30 | |
| Handicap -1 | Junior win by 2+ | 33% | 3.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Junior and Internacional de Bogota recent form
Junior
2W 1D 3L
Internacional de Bogota
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Junior at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-6-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.61
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 11 penalties (91%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Internacional de Bogota away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-8-7
- Win rate
- 12%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.82
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 9 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Junior at home only, Internacional de Bogota away only.
Junior vs Internacional de Bogota head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Junior 2 · draws 1 · Internacional de Bogota 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Internacional de Bogota | 0-1 | Junior | Primera A |
| 2025-09-13 | Junior | 1-1 | Internacional de Bogota | Primera A |
| 2025-04-01 | Internacional de Bogota | 0-1 | Junior | Primera A |
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