Junior vs Deportivo Pereira preview
In the fixture between Junior and Deportivo Pereira, the 1X2 probabilities show Junior at 65%, while Deportivo Pereira sits at 13%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with a 12% chance. Junior's expected goals are 2.09, compared to Deportivo Pereira's 0.85, indicating a strong attacking performance from Junior.
However, recent form could impact the outcome. Junior has recorded L-L-W-W-L-D in their last six matches, while Deportivo Pereira has L-L-D-D-L-D. Both teams to score has a 51% probability, and Over 2.5 goals stands at 56%. These factors suggest that while Junior is favored, the unpredictability of form could lead to a different result.
Junior vs Deportivo Pereira: model vs market
| Source | Junior | Draw | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 65% | 22% | 13% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Junior and Deportivo Pereira expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.94
- Attack rating (Junior / Deportivo Pereira)
- 1.16 / 0.63
- Defence rating (Junior / Deportivo Pereira)
- 1.36 / 1.28
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Junior vs Deportivo Pereira score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Junior goals. Columns: Deportivo Pereira goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Junior vs Deportivo Pereira goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Junior vs Deportivo Pereira
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Junior | 65% | 1.54 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.62 | |
| Deportivo Pereira | 13% | 7.53 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56% | 1.77 |
| Under 2.5 | 44% | 2.29 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Junior or draw) | 87% | 1.15 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.28 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Pereira) | 35% | 2.87 | |
| Handicap -1 | Junior win by 2+ | 42% | 2.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Junior and Deportivo Pereira recent form
Junior
2W 1D 3L
Deportivo Pereira
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Junior at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-6-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.61
- Goals against / match
- 1.22
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 18
- They have won 16 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 11 of 13 penalties (85%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Pereira away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-9
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.62
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 2 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Junior at home only, Deportivo Pereira away only.
Junior vs Deportivo Pereira head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Junior 2 · draws 0 · Deportivo Pereira 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | Deportivo Pereira | 2-3 | Junior | Primera A |
| 2025-10-18 | Junior | 3-2 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2025-04-27 | Deportivo Pereira | 1-0 | Junior | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Junior, previous: Junior vs Internacional de Bogota prediction
- Deportivo Pereira, previous: Deportivo Pereira – Deportivo Cali, 2026-10-10