Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Pereira | Draw | Deportivo Cali |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12% | 26% | 62% |
| Market | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Published | 19% | 26% | 55% |
| Edge | -9% | 0% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 0.60.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Deportivo Cali below the model: +9.1 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Cali, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pereira | 4.44 | 4.44 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.57 | 3.57 | +0.00 |
| Deportivo Cali | 1.76 | 1.76 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Pereira and Deportivo Cali expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.26
- Attack rating (Deportivo Pereira / Deportivo Cali)
- 0.63 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Deportivo Pereira / Deportivo Cali)
- 1.28 / 0.68
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Pereira goals. Columns: Deportivo Cali goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 38%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Pereira | 19% | 5.32 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.84 | |
| Deportivo Cali | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39% | 2.54 |
| Under 2.5 | 61% | 1.65 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38% | 2.65 |
| No | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Pereira or draw) | 45% | 2.23 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Cali) | 81% | 1.23 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Cali win by 2+ | 36% | 2.81 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Pereira and Deportivo Cali recent form
Deportivo Pereira
0W 3D 3L
Deportivo Cali
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Pereira at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-6-7
- Win rate
- 7%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.57
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 14
- They have won 2 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Cali away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-3-7
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Pereira at home only, Deportivo Cali away only.
Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Deportivo Pereira 1 · draws 0 · Deportivo Cali 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-29 | Deportivo Cali | 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2025-10-04 | Deportivo Cali | 1-0 | Deportivo Pereira | Primera A |
| 2025-04-15 | Deportivo Pereira | 2-0 | Deportivo Cali | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-09
- Once Caldas vs Llaneros 2026-10-10
- Junior v Internacional de Bogota — match page 2026-10-10
- Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto 2026-10-11
- Jaguares v Deportes Tolima — match page 2026-10-11
- America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Chico v Cucuta — match page 2026-10-13