Updated

Primera A · Clausura - 14

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima

· Estadio Jaragüay De Monteria, Monteria· Referee Diaz Vargas, Carlos Alberto

Full time3 – 2

Alin prediction was Deportes Tolima to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 0 – 1

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
JaguaresDrawDeportes Tolima

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceJaguaresDrawDeportes Tolima
Model37%31%32%
Market17%24%58%
Published22%26%52%
Edge+5%+2%-6%

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Deportes Tolima, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.92Now 1.60 -0.31
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Jaguares3.915.33+1.42
Draw3.273.80+0.52
Deportes Tolima1.921.60-0.31

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Jaguares and Deportes Tolima expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.20Jaguares
1.10Deportes Tolima
Total expected goals
2.31
Attack rating (Jaguares / Deportes Tolima)
0.98 / 0.80
Defence rating (Jaguares / Deportes Tolima)
1.40 / 0.87

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.3% 9.7% 6.1% 2.2% 0.8% 1 10.7% 14.5% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 2 7.2% 7.9% 4.4% 1.6% 0.6% 3 2.9% 3.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.1% 1.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Jaguares goals. Columns: Deportes Tolima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 41%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Jaguares22%4.48
Draw26%3.83
Deportes Tolima52%1.94
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.541%2.47
Under 2.559%1.68
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.08
No52%1.93
Double chance1X (Jaguares or draw)48%2.07
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Deportes Tolima)78%1.29
Handicap -1Deportes Tolima win by 2+13%7.50
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Jaguares and Deportes Tolima recent form

Jaguares 0W 3D 3L
Deportes Tolima 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Jaguares at home

Record (W-D-L)
6-4-6
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
1.38
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

Deportes Tolima away

Record (W-D-L)
4-7-6
Win rate
24%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.12
Clean sheets
5 of 17
  • They have won 15 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 36 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Jaguares at home only, Deportes Tolima away only.

Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Jaguares 0 · draws 3 · Deportes Tolima 7.

JaguaresDrawsDeportes Tolima
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-28Deportes Tolima3-1JaguaresPrimera A
2024-08-19Jaguares0-2Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2024-02-15Deportes Tolima2-0JaguaresPrimera A
2023-10-06Jaguares0-1Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2023-04-26Deportes Tolima1-1JaguaresPrimera A
2022-08-06Deportes Tolima2-2JaguaresPrimera A
2022-02-14Jaguares0-2Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2021-08-30Jaguares0-3Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2021-03-13Deportes Tolima3-2JaguaresPrimera A
2020-10-18Jaguares1-1Deportes TolimaPrimera A

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Before and after this match