Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima: model vs market
| Source | Jaguares | Draw | Deportes Tolima |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38% | 30% | 33% |
| Market | 24% | 28% | 48% |
| Published | 27% | 29% | 44% |
| Edge | +14% | +1% | -16% |
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportes Tolima, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jaguares | 3.91 | 3.91 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.27 | 3.27 | +0.00 |
| Deportes Tolima | 1.92 | 1.92 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Jaguares and Deportes Tolima expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.48
- Attack rating (Jaguares / Deportes Tolima)
- 0.98 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Jaguares / Deportes Tolima)
- 1.40 / 0.94
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Jaguares goals. Columns: Deportes Tolima goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Jaguares | 27% | 3.68 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Deportes Tolima | 44% | 2.26 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 |
| Under 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.93 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Jaguares or draw) | 56% | 1.80 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportes Tolima) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportes Tolima win by 2+ | 14% | 7.10 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Jaguares and Deportes Tolima recent form
Jaguares
0W 3D 3L
Deportes Tolima
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Jaguares at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-4-6
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.31
- Goals against / match
- 1.38
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
Deportes Tolima away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-6-6
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.19
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Jaguares at home only, Deportes Tolima away only.
Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Jaguares 0 · draws 0 · Deportes Tolima 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Deportes Tolima | 3-1 | Jaguares | Primera A |
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