Updated

Primera A · Clausura - 14

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin

· Olímpico Pascual Guerrero, Santiago de Cali· Referee Jose Alexander Ortiz Novoa

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was America de Cali to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 0

13% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
America de CaliDrawIndependiente Medellin

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAmerica de CaliDrawIndependiente Medellin
Model65%22%12%
Market52%27%22%
Published55%26%19%
Edge+3%-1%-2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.77.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices America de Cali below our published probability: +3.4 percentage points of edge.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin odds movement

Median bookmaker price on America de Cali, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 1.80Now 1.80 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
America de Cali1.801.80+0.00
Draw3.443.48+0.04
Independiente Medellin4.204.33+0.12

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

America de Cali and Independiente Medellin expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.01America de Cali
0.77Independiente Medellin
Total expected goals
2.78
Attack rating (America de Cali / Independiente Medellin)
1.28 / 1.08
Defence rating (America de Cali / Independiente Medellin)
0.72 / 1.11

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.2% 3.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 1 11.5% 10.6% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 2 12.5% 9.7% 3.7% 1.0% 0.2% 3 8.4% 6.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% 4+ 6.7% 5.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.1%

Rows: America de Cali goals. Columns: Independiente Medellin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 53%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
47%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2America de Cali55%1.81
Draw26%3.90
Independiente Medellin19%5.20
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.553%1.90
Under 2.547%2.11
Both teams to scoreYes47%2.11
No53%1.90
Double chance1X (America de Cali or draw)81%1.24
12 (either side)74%1.34
X2 (draw or Independiente Medellin)45%2.23
Handicap -1America de Cali win by 2+41%2.42
Push (exactly one goal)24%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

America de Cali and Independiente Medellin recent form

America de Cali 3W 2D 1L
Independiente Medellin 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

America de Cali at home

Record (W-D-L)
11-4-1
Win rate
69%
Goals for / match
2.00
Goals against / match
0.44
Clean sheets
10 of 16
  • They have won 18 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 16 clean sheets in 33 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 33 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Independiente Medellin away

Record (W-D-L)
5-4-5
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.43
Goals against / match
1.36
Clean sheets
3 of 14
  • They have won 13 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: America de Cali at home only, Independiente Medellin away only.

Expected lineups

America de Cali lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 Jean
  2. 14 M. Mina
  3. 3 D. Rosero
  4. 24 C. Tovar
  5. 13 M. Castillo
  6. 5 J. Escobar
  7. 15 R. Carrascal
  8. 88 T. Palacios
  9. 10 Y. Guzmán
  10. 23 L. Quiñones
  11. 21 T. Ángel

Bench: M. Torres, J. Valencia, J. Montoya, J. Lucumí, Y. Quintero, C. Amu, O. Bertel, E. Tortolero

Independiente Medellin lineup · 4-4-2

  1. 25 E. Chaux
  2. 18 F. Fabra
  3. 5 J. Varela
  4. 39 L. Escorcia
  5. 26 E. Mena
  6. 11 Y. González
  7. 6 D. Moreno
  8. 16 H. Loboa
  9. 30 H. Palacios
  10. 32 C. Lucumi
  11. 10 D. Cataño

Bench: S. Ichazo, K. Mantilla, B. Perlaza, A. Simarra, J. Montaño, N. Erazo, D. Moreno, K. Klinger, E. Larrosa

America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: America de Cali 4 · draws 3 · Independiente Medellin 3.

America de CaliDrawsIndependiente Medellin
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-30Independiente Medellin2-1America de CaliPrimera A
2025-12-02Independiente Medellin1-1America de CaliPrimera A
2025-11-27America de Cali2-1Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2025-11-14Independiente Medellin3-0America de CaliPrimera A
2025-06-20America de Cali1-1Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2025-06-01Independiente Medellin1-1America de CaliPrimera A
2025-05-25America de Cali2-0Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2024-10-15America de Cali1-0Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2024-04-01Independiente Medellin1-4America de CaliPrimera A
2023-12-07Independiente Medellin2-1America de CaliPrimera A

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Before and after this match