America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin: model vs market
| Source | America de Cali | Draw | Independiente Medellin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 65% | 22% | 12% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Published | 55% | 26% | 20% |
| Edge | +14% | -5% | -10% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices America de Cali below the model: +14.2 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin odds movement
Median bookmaker price on America de Cali, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| America de Cali | 1.80 | 1.80 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.44 | +0.00 |
| Independiente Medellin | 4.20 | 4.20 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
America de Cali and Independiente Medellin expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.78
- Attack rating (America de Cali / Independiente Medellin)
- 1.28 / 1.08
- Defence rating (America de Cali / Independiente Medellin)
- 0.72 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: America de Cali goals. Columns: Independiente Medellin goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | America de Cali | 55% | 1.83 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.90 | |
| Independiente Medellin | 20% | 5.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 2.5 | 47% | 2.11 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (America de Cali or draw) | 80% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.34 | |
| X2 (draw or Independiente Medellin) | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Handicap -1 | America de Cali win by 2+ | 41% | 2.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
America de Cali and Independiente Medellin recent form
America de Cali
3W 2D 1L
Independiente Medellin
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
America de Cali at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-4-1
- Win rate
- 69%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 0.44
- Clean sheets
- 10 of 16
- They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente Medellin away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-5
- Win rate
- 36%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 14
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: America de Cali at home only, Independiente Medellin away only.
America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: America de Cali 2 · draws 3 · Independiente Medellin 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Independiente Medellin | 2-1 | America de Cali | Primera A |
| 2025-12-02 | Independiente Medellin | 1-1 | America de Cali | Primera A |
| 2025-11-27 | America de Cali | 2-1 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2025-11-14 | Independiente Medellin | 3-0 | America de Cali | Primera A |
| 2025-06-20 | America de Cali | 1-1 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| 2025-06-01 | Independiente Medellin | 1-1 | America de Cali | Primera A |
| 2025-05-25 | America de Cali | 2-0 | Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
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