Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas preview
In the Primera A match between Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas, the model gives a slight edge to Alianza Valledupar with a 36% chance of winning compared to 35% for Águilas Doradas. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 55% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance for both teams to score.
However, recent form shows Alianza Valledupar with a mixed record of L-W-L-W-W-L, while Águilas Doradas has struggled with W-L-L-D-L-D. The head-to-head record also favors Águilas Doradas, who have won 2 of the last 3 encounters. This could challenge the prediction, as form and past results may influence the outcome.
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas: model vs market
| Source | Alianza Valledupar | Draw | Águilas Doradas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 27% | 36% |
| Market | 35% | 30% | 35% |
| Published | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Edge | +1% | -3% | +2% |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.75, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Alianza Valledupar, 6 snapshots since 2026-10-04.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alianza Valledupar | 2.62 | 2.62 | -0.00 |
| Draw | 3.12 | 3.10 | -0.02 |
| Águilas Doradas | 2.64 | 2.68 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.89
- Attack rating (Alianza Valledupar / Águilas Doradas)
- 0.90 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Alianza Valledupar / Águilas Doradas)
- 1.49 / 1.14
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza Valledupar goals. Columns: Águilas Doradas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza Valledupar | 36% | 2.80 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.42 | |
| Águilas Doradas | 35% | 2.85 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.68 |
| No | 40% | 2.48 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza Valledupar or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.41 | |
| X2 (draw or Águilas Doradas) | 64% | 1.56 | |
| Handicap -1 | Alianza Valledupar win by 2+ | 18% | 5.62 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas recent form
Alianza Valledupar
3W 0D 3L
Águilas Doradas
1W 2D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza Valledupar at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-7-6
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Águilas Doradas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-6
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 0.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.36
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 14
- They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza Valledupar at home only, Águilas Doradas away only.
Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Alianza Valledupar 0 · draws 1 · Águilas Doradas 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-27 | Águilas Doradas | 1-0 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 2025-10-18 | Águilas Doradas | 1-0 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 2025-04-26 | Alianza Valledupar | 0-0 | Águilas Doradas | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 14 fixtures
- Fortaleza FC vs Millonarios — team news & stats 2026-10-09
- Once Caldas vs Llaneros 2026-10-10
- Junior v Internacional de Bogota — match page 2026-10-10
- Atletico Nacional vs Deportivo Pasto 2026-10-11
- Deportivo Pereira vs Deportivo Cali — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Jaguares v Deportes Tolima — match page 2026-10-11
- America de Cali vs Independiente Medellin — team news & stats 2026-10-12
- Chico v Cucuta — match page 2026-10-13