Updated

Primera A · Clausura - 14

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas

· Estadio Armando Maestre Pavajeau, Valledupar· Referee Wilmar Hernando Montano Guevara

Full time2 – 2

Alin prediction was Alianza Valledupar to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

8% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Alianza ValleduparDrawÁguilas Doradas

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceAlianza ValleduparDrawÁguilas Doradas
Model37%27%36%
Market38%30%33%
Published37%29%34%
Edge0%-1%+1%
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Alianza Valledupar, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-04.

Opened 2.62Now 2.45 -0.17
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Alianza Valledupar2.622.45-0.17
Draw3.123.10-0.02
Águilas Doradas2.642.81+0.17

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.45Alianza Valledupar
1.44Águilas Doradas
Total expected goals
2.89
Attack rating (Alianza Valledupar / Águilas Doradas)
0.90 / 0.98
Defence rating (Alianza Valledupar / Águilas Doradas)
1.49 / 1.14

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.7% 6.8% 5.8% 2.8% 1.4% 1 6.9% 12.7% 8.4% 4.0% 2.0% 2 5.8% 8.4% 6.1% 2.9% 1.5% 3 2.8% 4.1% 2.9% 1.4% 0.7% 4+ 1.4% 2.0% 1.5% 0.7% 0.4%

Rows: Alianza Valledupar goals. Columns: Águilas Doradas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 33%
Both teams to score
60%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Alianza Valledupar37%2.68
Draw29%3.44
Águilas Doradas34%2.97
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.81
Under 2.545%2.24
Both teams to scoreYes60%1.68
No40%2.48
Double chance1X (Alianza Valledupar or draw)66%1.51
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Águilas Doradas)63%1.60
Handicap -1Alianza Valledupar win by 2+18%5.62
Push (exactly one goal)19%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Alianza Valledupar and Águilas Doradas recent form

Alianza Valledupar 3W 0D 3L
Águilas Doradas 1W 2D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Alianza Valledupar at home

Record (W-D-L)
3-7-6
Win rate
19%
Goals for / match
0.88
Goals against / match
1.50
Clean sheets
5 of 16
  • They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Águilas Doradas away

Record (W-D-L)
4-4-6
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
0.86
Goals against / match
1.36
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 8 penalties (88%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza Valledupar at home only, Águilas Doradas away only.

Expected lineups

Alianza Valledupar lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 40 E. Esteban
  2. 32 J. Viveros
  3. 22 J. Figueroa
  4. 23 I. Alba
  5. 7 J. Castillo
  6. 55 W. Fernández
  7. 8 J. Muñoz
  8. 14 C. Villegas
  9. 10 D. Quiñónes

Bench: K. Moreno, P. Franco, E. Meza, A. Simancas, J. Perez, Yeiner Stiwar Londoño Rentería, M. Martínez

Águilas Doradas lineup · 4-2-3-1

  1. 1 J. Soto
  2. 32 J. Mena
  3. 3 J. Ontaneda
  4. 4 A. Mosquera
  5. 26 D. Lozano
  6. 6 I. Rojas
  7. 19 F. Lozano
  8. 8 A. Ricaurte
  9. 15 F. Suárez
  10. 21 R. Márquez

Bench: A. Vásquez, Junior Alexander Noguera Machuca, Juan Hurtado, M. Ramírez, J. Ávalo, J. Roa, S. Rodríguez, T. Blandon, N. Lara

Alianza Valledupar vs Águilas Doradas head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Alianza Valledupar 4 · draws 2 · Águilas Doradas 4.

Alianza ValleduparDrawsÁguilas Doradas
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-27Águilas Doradas1-0Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
2025-10-18Águilas Doradas1-0Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
2025-06-04Alianza Valledupar4-0Águilas DoradasCopa Colombia
2025-04-26Alianza Valledupar0-0Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2024-11-06Alianza Valledupar3-0Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2024-04-17Águilas Doradas4-0Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
2023-10-15Águilas Doradas3-0Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
2023-06-18Águilas Doradas1-1Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
2023-05-22Alianza Valledupar5-3Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2023-04-30Alianza Valledupar2-1Águilas DoradasPrimera A

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Before and after this match