Chico vs Cucuta: model vs market
| Source | Chico | Draw | Cucuta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Published | 42% | 30% | 29% |
| Edge | +3% | -3% | 0% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.20.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Chico below the model: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chico vs Cucuta odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Chico, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-06.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chico | 2.25 | 2.25 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.08 | 3.08 | +0.00 |
| Cucuta | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chico and Cucuta expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.74
- Attack rating (Chico / Cucuta)
- 0.89 / 1.10
- Defence rating (Chico / Cucuta)
- 1.11 / 1.22
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chico vs Cucuta score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chico goals. Columns: Cucuta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chico vs Cucuta goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chico vs Cucuta
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chico | 42% | 2.39 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.39 | |
| Cucuta | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| No | 44% | 2.28 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chico or draw) | 71% | 1.40 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Cucuta) | 58% | 1.72 | |
| Handicap -1 | Chico win by 2+ | 23% | 4.42 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chico and Cucuta recent form
Chico
3W 1D 2L
Cucuta
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chico at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-4
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 0.57
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 14
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 29 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cucuta away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-5-10
- Win rate
- 6%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 2.19
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Chico at home only, Cucuta away only.
Chico vs Cucuta head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Chico 0 · draws 0 · Cucuta 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Cucuta | 1-0 | Chico | Primera A |
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