Updated

Primera A · Clausura - 14

Chico vs Cucuta

· Estadio La Independencia, Tunja· Referee Jhon Ospina

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Chico to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
ChicoDrawCucuta

Chico vs Cucuta: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceChicoDrawCucuta
Model44%28%29%
Market40%31%29%
Published41%30%29%
Edge+1%-1%0%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.54 vs 1.20.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Chico vs Cucuta odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Chico, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-06.

Opened 2.25Now 2.30 +0.05
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Chico2.252.30+0.05
Draw3.083.00-0.08
Cucuta3.253.20-0.05

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Chico and Cucuta expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.54Chico
1.20Cucuta
Total expected goals
2.74
Attack rating (Chico / Cucuta)
0.89 / 1.10
Defence rating (Chico / Cucuta)
1.11 / 1.22

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Chico vs Cucuta score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.6% 6.6% 4.7% 1.9% 0.7% 1 8.7% 13.1% 7.2% 2.9% 1.1% 2 7.6% 9.2% 5.5% 2.2% 0.9% 3 3.9% 4.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4% 4+ 2.1% 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Chico goals. Columns: Cucuta goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Chico vs Cucuta goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Chico vs Cucuta

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Chico41%2.43
Draw30%3.33
Cucuta29%3.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.93
Under 2.548%2.07
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.78
No44%2.28
Double chance1X (Chico or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)70%1.43
X2 (draw or Cucuta)59%1.70
Handicap -1Chico win by 2+23%4.42
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Chico and Cucuta recent form

Chico 3W 1D 2L
Cucuta 2W 1D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Chico at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-2-4
Win rate
57%
Goals for / match
1.50
Goals against / match
0.57
Clean sheets
7 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 17 of 30 matches.

Cucuta away

Record (W-D-L)
1-5-10
Win rate
6%
Goals for / match
0.88
Goals against / match
2.19
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Chico at home only, Cucuta away only.

Chico vs Cucuta head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Chico 2 · draws 0 · Cucuta 5.

ChicoDrawsCucuta
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-28Cucuta1-0ChicoPrimera A
2022-08-09Cucuta1-2ChicoPrimera B
2020-09-27Chico0-2CucutaPrimera A
2017-07-02Cucuta3-0ChicoPrimera B
2017-06-04Cucuta4-2ChicoPrimera B
2017-06-02Chico5-2CucutaPrimera B
2017-02-15Chico0-1CucutaPrimera B

Other Clausura - 14 fixtures

Before and after this match