Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional preview
Cucuta faces Atletico Nacional with a 22% chance of victory for Cucuta, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 53% chance for Atletico Nacional to win. The most likely scoreline from our model is 0-1, at 8%. Both teams to score is at 55%, while Over 2.5 goals stands at 49%.
Cucuta's recent form shows 3 wins, 2 losses, and 1 draw, while Atletico Nacional has 3 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss. Expected goals are 1.28 for Cucuta and 1.36 for Atletico Nacional. The head-to-head record shows Cucuta has 0 wins, 1 draw, and Atletico Nacional has 0 wins in their last encounter. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional: model vs market
| Source | Cucuta | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 34% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | 19% | 24% | 58% |
| Published | 22% | 25% | 53% |
| Edge | +15% | +5% | -20% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the 5 books we record, each at its own last update.
Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Nacional, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cucuta | 5.00 | 5.00 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.00 |
| Atletico Nacional | 1.60 | 1.60 | +0.00 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Cucuta and Atletico Nacional expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Cucuta / Atletico Nacional)
- 1.09 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Cucuta / Atletico Nacional)
- 1.04 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Cucuta goals. Columns: Atletico Nacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cucuta | 22% | 4.47 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.03 | |
| Atletico Nacional | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.82 |
| No | 45% | 2.22 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Cucuta or draw) | 47% | 2.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Nacional) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win by 2+ | 18% | 5.63 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Cucuta and Atletico Nacional recent form
Cucuta
3W 1D 2L
Atletico Nacional
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Cucuta at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-4
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 8 penalties (75%).
Atletico Nacional away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-0-8
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 19
- They have won 25 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Cucuta at home only, Atletico Nacional away only.
Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Cucuta 0 · draws 1 · Atletico Nacional 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-02 | Atletico Nacional | 0-0 | Cucuta | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima 2026-10-18
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page 2026-10-18
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe 2026-10-18
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page 2026-10-19
- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar 2026-10-20
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Cucuta, previous: Chico v Cucuta analysis
- Atletico Nacional, previous: Chico – Atletico Nacional, 2026-10-17
- Atletico Nacional, next: Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto analysis