Llaneros vs Santa Fe preview
In the Primera A fixture between Llaneros and Santa Fe, the 1X2 probabilities show Santa Fe at 40%, while Llaneros sits at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-1, which occurs 12% of the time. Santa Fe's recent form includes 5 wins in their last 6 matches, while Llaneros has lost 5 of their last 6 games.
The expected goals indicate Llaneros at 0.97 and Santa Fe at 1.20. There is a 37% chance of Over 2.5 goals and a 45% chance for both teams to score. While Santa Fe's form suggests they could win, Llaneros has previously won 2 out of their last 3 encounters, which could impact the outcome.
Llaneros vs Santa Fe: model vs market
| Source | Llaneros | Draw | Santa Fe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28% | 32% | 40% |
| Market | 34% | 30% | 36% |
| Published | 32% | 30% | 37% |
| Edge | -5% | +2% | +4% |
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Santa Fe below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.62, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Llaneros vs Santa Fe odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Santa Fe, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Llaneros | 2.62 | 2.75 | +0.13 |
| Draw | 3.06 | 3.11 | +0.05 |
| Santa Fe | 2.62 | 2.56 | -0.06 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Llaneros and Santa Fe expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.18
- Attack rating (Llaneros / Santa Fe)
- 0.88 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Llaneros / Santa Fe)
- 1.15 / 0.78
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Llaneros vs Santa Fe score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Llaneros goals. Columns: Santa Fe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Llaneros vs Santa Fe goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Llaneros vs Santa Fe
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llaneros | 32% | 3.08 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Santa Fe | 37% | 2.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 37% | 2.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 63% | 1.59 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Llaneros or draw) | 63% | 1.59 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.44 | |
| X2 (draw or Santa Fe) | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Fe win by 2+ | 18% | 5.59 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Llaneros and Santa Fe recent form
Llaneros
1W 0D 5L
Santa Fe
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Llaneros at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-4
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Santa Fe away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-8-3
- Win rate
- 35%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.06
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Llaneros at home only, Santa Fe away only.
Llaneros vs Santa Fe head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Llaneros 2 · draws 0 · Santa Fe 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Santa Fe | 0-1 | Llaneros | Primera A |
| 2025-10-12 | Santa Fe | 1-3 | Llaneros | Primera A |
| 2025-05-01 | Llaneros | 0-1 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Millonarios vs Jaguares — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima 2026-10-18
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page 2026-10-18
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page 2026-10-19
- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar 2026-10-20
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Llaneros, previous: Once Caldas vs Llaneros: odds and pick
- Llaneros, next: Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali prediction
- Santa Fe, previous: Santa Fe v Jaguares analysis