Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali preview
Llaneros face Deportivo Cali with a 20% chance of winning for Llaneros and a 50% chance for Deportivo Cali. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 15% of the time according to our model. Llaneros' recent form shows 1 win in their last 6 matches, while Deportivo Cali has won 5 of their last 6 games.
The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 36%, and both teams to score is at 41%. Llaneros are expected to score 0.77 goals, while Deportivo Cali is projected at 1.37 goals. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions. Factors such as unexpected performances or changes in team dynamics could lead to different outcomes.
Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali: model vs market
| Source | Llaneros | Draw | Deportivo Cali |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Llaneros and Deportivo Cali expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.15
- Attack rating (Llaneros / Deportivo Cali)
- 0.88 / 1.21
- Defence rating (Llaneros / Deportivo Cali)
- 1.15 / 0.62
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Llaneros goals. Columns: Deportivo Cali goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 41%
- No goals (0–0)
- 13%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Llaneros | 20% | 5.05 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.30 | |
| Deportivo Cali | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36% | 2.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 64% | 1.57 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41% | 2.41 |
| No | 59% | 1.71 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Llaneros or draw) | 50% | 2.00 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.43 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Cali) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Cali win by 2+ | 25% | 4.02 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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Llaneros and Deportivo Cali recent form
Llaneros
1W 0D 5L
Deportivo Cali
5W 1D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Llaneros at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-7-4
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 1.20
- Goals against / match
- 1.07
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Cali away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-4-7
- Win rate
- 31%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Llaneros at home only, Deportivo Cali away only.
Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Llaneros 1 · draws 1 · Deportivo Cali 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Deportivo Cali | 1-1 | Llaneros | Primera A |
| 2025-08-02 | Deportivo Cali | 0-3 | Llaneros | Primera A |
| 2025-02-18 | Llaneros | 0-1 | Deportivo Cali | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Llaneros, previous: Llaneros v Santa Fe analysis
- Deportivo Cali, previous: Deportivo Cali vs Junior: odds and pick