Deportivo Cali vs Junior preview
Deportivo Cali faces Junior with a strong 73% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Deportivo Cali stand at 2.39, while Junior has just 0.75. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, which aligns with the 61% chance of Over 2.5 goals.
However, the confidence grade is C, indicating uncertainty. Junior has shown some resilience with a recent win, and both teams have a balanced head-to-head record of 1 win each and 1 draw in the last 3 encounters. If Junior can improve their scoring, they might challenge Deportivo Cali's dominance.
Deportivo Cali vs Junior: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Cali | Draw | Junior |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Market | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Published | 54% | 25% | 21% |
| Edge | +22% | -7% | -14% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.22 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Deportivo Cali below the model: +21.6 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.95, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Cali vs Junior odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Cali, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Cali | 2.03 | 1.89 | -0.14 |
| Draw | 3.28 | 3.43 | +0.15 |
| Junior | 3.51 | 3.81 | +0.30 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Cali and Junior expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.95
- Attack rating (Deportivo Cali / Junior)
- 1.21 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Deportivo Cali / Junior)
- 0.62 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Cali vs Junior score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Cali goals. Columns: Junior goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Cali vs Junior goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Cali vs Junior
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Cali | 54% | 1.84 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.99 | |
| Junior | 21% | 4.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 2.5 | 43% | 2.31 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Cali or draw) | 79% | 1.26 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Junior) | 46% | 2.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Cali win by 2+ | 47% | 2.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Cali and Junior recent form
Deportivo Cali
5W 1D 0L
Junior
2W 2D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Cali at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 9-6-1
- Win rate
- 56%
- Goals for / match
- 1.56
- Goals against / match
- 0.62
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Junior away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-2-9
- Win rate
- 39%
- Goals for / match
- 1.39
- Goals against / match
- 1.44
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 18
- They have won 16 of their 37 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 37 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 37 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 11 of 13 penalties (85%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Cali at home only, Junior away only.
Deportivo Cali vs Junior head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Deportivo Cali 1 · draws 1 · Junior 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | Junior | 1-2 | Deportivo Cali | Primera A |
| 2025-07-13 | Deportivo Cali | 0-2 | Junior | Primera A |
| 2025-01-26 | Junior | 0-0 | Deportivo Cali | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Millonarios vs Jaguares — team news & stats 2026-10-17
- Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima 2026-10-18
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page 2026-10-18
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe 2026-10-18
- Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar 2026-10-20
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Cali, previous: Deportivo Pereira – Deportivo Cali, 2026-10-10
- Deportivo Cali, next: Llaneros vs Deportivo Cali prediction
- Junior, previous: Junior – Deportivo Pereira, 2026-10-14
- Junior, next: Junior vs Águilas Doradas: odds and pick