Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar preview
In the fixture between Deportivo Pasto and Alianza Valledupar, the 1X2 probabilities show Deportivo Pasto at 49% to win, while Alianza Valledupar sits at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 10% chance according to our model. Deportivo Pasto's expected goals are 1.47, compared to Alianza Valledupar's 1.11, suggesting a tight contest.
However, both teams to score stands at 53%, indicating that there is a reasonable chance for both teams to find the net. Recent form shows Deportivo Pasto with two draws, while Alianza Valledupar has won three of their last five matches. This could impact the outcome, making the match less predictable than the numbers suggest.
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar: model vs market
| Source | Deportivo Pasto | Draw | Alianza Valledupar |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44% | 28% | 27% |
| Market | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| Published | 51% | 27% | 22% |
| Edge | -9% | +2% | +7% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 1.11.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 9 books we record, each at its own last update.
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Pasto, 10 snapshots since 2026-10-13.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 1.83 | 1.75 | -0.08 |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.47 | +0.07 |
| Alianza Valledupar | 4.33 | 4.60 | +0.27 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Deportivo Pasto and Alianza Valledupar expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Deportivo Pasto / Alianza Valledupar)
- 0.69 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Deportivo Pasto / Alianza Valledupar)
- 1.13 / 1.51
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Deportivo Pasto goals. Columns: Alianza Valledupar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportivo Pasto | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Alianza Valledupar | 22% | 4.54 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Deportivo Pasto or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Alianza Valledupar) | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Handicap -1 | Deportivo Pasto win by 2+ | 22% | 4.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Deportivo Pasto and Alianza Valledupar recent form
Deportivo Pasto
2W 2D 2L
Alianza Valledupar
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Deportivo Pasto at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-7
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 17
- They have won 12 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Alianza Valledupar away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-3-9
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.73
- Goals against / match
- 1.80
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 15
- They have won 6 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Pasto at home only, Alianza Valledupar away only.
Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Deportivo Pasto 0 · draws 2 · Alianza Valledupar 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-01 | Alianza Valledupar | 0-0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
| 2025-10-05 | Deportivo Pasto | 3-3 | Alianza Valledupar | Primera A |
| 2025-04-15 | Alianza Valledupar | 1-0 | Deportivo Pasto | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 15 fixtures
- Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas — team news & stats 2026-10-18
- Águilas Doradas vs Deportes Tolima 2026-10-18
- Bucaramanga v America de Cali — match page 2026-10-18
- Llaneros vs Santa Fe 2026-10-18
- Deportivo Cali v Junior — match page 2026-10-19
- Deportivo Pereira vs Chico — team news & stats 2026-10-20
- Internacional de Bogota v Fortaleza FC — match page 2026-10-20
- Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional — team news & stats 2026-10-20
Before and after this match
- Deportivo Pasto, previous: Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC prediction
- Deportivo Pasto, next: Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Pasto analysis
- Alianza Valledupar, previous: Alianza Valledupar – Águilas Doradas, 2026-10-09