Primera A · Clausura - 13

Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC

· Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto· Referee Bryan Loayza

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Deportivo Pasto to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Deportivo PastoDrawFortaleza FC

Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDeportivo PastoDrawFortaleza FC
Model39%28%34%
Market43%29%27%
Published42%29%29%
Edge-5%-1%+6%
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Deportivo Pasto and Fortaleza FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.43Deportivo Pasto
1.32Fortaleza FC
Total expected goals
2.76
Attack rating (Deportivo Pasto / Fortaleza FC)
0.76 / 1.05
Defence rating (Deportivo Pasto / Fortaleza FC)
1.26 / 1.33

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.6% 7.2% 5.6% 2.5% 1.1% 1 7.9% 13.3% 8.0% 3.5% 1.6% 2 6.5% 8.6% 5.7% 2.5% 1.1% 3 3.1% 4.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 1.5% 2.0% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3%

Rows: Deportivo Pasto goals. Columns: Fortaleza FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 30%
Both teams to score
57%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Deportivo Pasto42%2.37
Draw29%3.47
Fortaleza FC29%3.45
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.92
Under 2.548%2.08
Both teams to scoreYes57%1.75
No43%2.33
Double chance1X (Deportivo Pasto or draw)71%1.41
12 (either side)71%1.41
X2 (draw or Fortaleza FC)58%1.73
Handicap -1Deportivo Pasto win by 2+19%5.32
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Deportivo Pasto and Fortaleza FC recent form

Deportivo Pasto 2W 2D 2L
Fortaleza FC 0W 4D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Deportivo Pasto at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-2-7
Win rate
44%
Goals for / match
1.06
Goals against / match
1.06
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 12 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fortaleza FC away

Record (W-D-L)
0-8-6
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.79
Clean sheets
2 of 14
  • They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Pasto at home only, Fortaleza FC away only.

Deportivo Pasto vs Fortaleza FC head-to-head

Last 7 meetings: Deportivo Pasto 5 · draws 1 · Fortaleza FC 1.

Deportivo PastoDrawsFortaleza FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-25Fortaleza FC1-2Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2025-10-24Fortaleza FC2-0Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2025-05-04Deportivo Pasto1-0Fortaleza FCPrimera A
2024-09-15Fortaleza FC0-0Deportivo PastoPrimera A
2024-03-05Deportivo Pasto1-0Fortaleza FCPrimera A
2016-11-06Deportivo Pasto1-0Fortaleza FCPrimera A
2016-05-20Fortaleza FC0-1Deportivo PastoPrimera A

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