Primera A · Clausura - 13

Bucaramanga vs Junior

· Estadio Américo Montanini, Bucaramanga· Referee Wilmar Roldan

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Bucaramanga to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
BucaramangaDrawJunior

Bucaramanga vs Junior: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceBucaramangaDrawJunior
Model67%19%14%
Market47%28%25%
Published52%26%22%
Edge+20%-9%-11%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.10.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Bucaramanga below the model: +20.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Bucaramanga vs Junior odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Bucaramanga, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.97Now 2.00 +0.03
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Bucaramanga1.972.00+0.03
Draw3.343.30-0.04
Junior3.673.70+0.03

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Bucaramanga and Junior expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.49Bucaramanga
1.10Junior
Total expected goals
3.59
Attack rating (Bucaramanga / Junior)
1.40 / 1.23
Defence rating (Bucaramanga / Junior)
0.90 / 1.26

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Bucaramanga vs Junior score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 3.5% 2.3% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 1 6.1% 8.3% 4.1% 1.5% 0.5% 2 8.6% 9.4% 5.2% 1.9% 0.7% 3 7.1% 7.8% 4.3% 1.6% 0.5% 4+ 8.0% 8.8% 4.8% 1.8% 0.6%

Rows: Bucaramanga goals. Columns: Junior goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Bucaramanga vs Junior goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 96%
Over 1.5 88%
Over 2.5 70%
Over 3.5 48%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
4%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Bucaramanga vs Junior

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Bucaramanga52%1.94
Draw26%3.86
Junior22%4.46
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570%1.44
Under 2.530%3.28
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.63
Double chance1X (Bucaramanga or draw)78%1.29
12 (either side)74%1.35
X2 (draw or Junior)48%2.07
Handicap -1Bucaramanga win by 2+46%2.17
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Bucaramanga and Junior recent form

Bucaramanga 3W 3D 0L
Junior 2W 2D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Bucaramanga at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-7-1
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.92
Goals against / match
0.77
Clean sheets
6 of 13
  • They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
  • 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Junior away

Record (W-D-L)
7-2-8
Win rate
41%
Goals for / match
1.41
Goals against / match
1.35
Clean sheets
4 of 17
  • They have won 15 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 10 of 11 penalties (91%).
  • 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Bucaramanga at home only, Junior away only.

Bucaramanga vs Junior head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Bucaramanga 2 · draws 3 · Junior 5.

BucaramangaDrawsJunior
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-24Junior2-0BucaramangaPrimera A
2025-08-18Junior2-1BucaramangaPrimera A
2025-03-01Bucaramanga1-1JuniorPrimera A
2024-07-18Bucaramanga1-0JuniorPrimera A
2024-05-26Junior1-0BucaramangaPrimera A
2024-05-11Bucaramanga0-0JuniorPrimera A
2024-01-21Junior2-0BucaramangaPrimera A
2023-08-01Junior1-1BucaramangaPrimera A
2023-02-05Bucaramanga1-0JuniorPrimera A
2022-10-10Bucaramanga0-1JuniorPrimera A

Other Clausura - 13 fixtures