Primera A · Clausura - 13

Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar

· Estadio Deportivo Cali, Palmira· Referee Jairo Londono

Full time3 – 1

Alin prediction was Deportivo Cali to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 0

15% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Deportivo CaliDrawAlianza Valledupar

Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDeportivo CaliDrawAlianza Valledupar
Model76%17%7%
Market62%24%14%
Published65%22%12%
Edge+14%-7%-7%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.34 vs 0.59.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Deportivo Cali below the model: +14.3 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Deportivo Cali, 8 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.53Now 1.51 -0.02
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Deportivo Cali1.531.51-0.02
Draw3.783.86+0.08
Alianza Valledupar6.306.50+0.20

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Deportivo Cali and Alianza Valledupar expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

2.34Deportivo Cali
0.59Alianza Valledupar
Total expected goals
2.93
Attack rating (Deportivo Cali / Alianza Valledupar)
1.18 / 0.90
Defence rating (Deportivo Cali / Alianza Valledupar)
0.66 / 1.40

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.1% 2.4% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1 11.8% 8.1% 2.2% 0.4% 0.1% 2 14.6% 8.6% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 3 11.4% 6.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 4+ 11.5% 6.8% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1%

Rows: Deportivo Cali goals. Columns: Alianza Valledupar goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 56%
Over 3.5 34%
Both teams to score
41%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Deportivo Cali65%1.53
Draw22%4.47
Alianza Valledupar12%8.03
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556%1.79
Under 2.544%2.27
Both teams to scoreYes41%2.44
No59%1.69
Double chance1X (Deportivo Cali or draw)88%1.14
12 (either side)78%1.29
X2 (draw or Alianza Valledupar)35%2.87
Handicap -1Deportivo Cali win by 2+53%1.88
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Deportivo Cali and Alianza Valledupar recent form

Deportivo Cali 4W 2D 0L
Alianza Valledupar 3W 0D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Deportivo Cali at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-6-1
Win rate
53%
Goals for / match
1.47
Goals against / match
0.60
Clean sheets
8 of 15
  • They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Alianza Valledupar away

Record (W-D-L)
3-3-8
Win rate
21%
Goals for / match
0.71
Goals against / match
1.71
Clean sheets
1 of 14
  • They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Deportivo Cali at home only, Alianza Valledupar away only.

Deportivo Cali vs Alianza Valledupar head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Deportivo Cali 4 · draws 3 · Alianza Valledupar 3.

Deportivo CaliDrawsAlianza Valledupar
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-21Deportivo Cali1-0Alianza ValleduparCopa Colombia
2026-03-22Alianza Valledupar1-0Deportivo CaliPrimera A
2025-10-28Deportivo Cali0-1Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
2025-05-11Alianza Valledupar2-0Deportivo CaliPrimera A
2024-07-22Deportivo Cali1-0Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
2024-01-27Alianza Valledupar3-3Deportivo CaliPrimera A
2023-10-02Deportivo Cali1-0Alianza ValleduparPrimera A
2023-04-22Alianza Valledupar0-3Deportivo CaliPrimera A
2022-08-20Alianza Valledupar4-4Deportivo CaliPrimera A
2022-02-20Deportivo Cali1-1Alianza ValleduparPrimera A

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