Primera A · Clausura - 13

Águilas Doradas vs Jaguares

· Estadio Cincuentenario, Medellin· Referee Jose Alexander Ortiz Novoa

Full time2 – 0

Alin prediction was Águilas Doradas to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Águilas DoradasDrawJaguares

Águilas Doradas vs Jaguares: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceÁguilas DoradasDrawJaguares
Model46%25%28%
Market62%22%15%
Published58%23%19%
Edge-16%+3%+13%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.34.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Águilas Doradas vs Jaguares odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Águilas Doradas, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.57Now 1.50 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Águilas Doradas1.571.50-0.07
Draw3.804.20+0.40
Jaguares5.606.05+0.45

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Águilas Doradas and Jaguares expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.75Águilas Doradas
1.34Jaguares
Total expected goals
3.09
Attack rating (Águilas Doradas / Jaguares)
0.92 / 1.07
Defence rating (Águilas Doradas / Jaguares)
1.26 / 1.35

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Águilas Doradas vs Jaguares score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 5.6% 5.0% 4.1% 1.8% 0.8% 1 6.9% 11.7% 7.2% 3.2% 1.4% 2 6.9% 9.3% 6.3% 2.8% 1.3% 3 4.1% 5.4% 3.7% 1.6% 0.7% 4+ 2.6% 3.5% 2.4% 1.1% 0.5%

Rows: Águilas Doradas goals. Columns: Jaguares goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Águilas Doradas vs Jaguares goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 94%
Over 1.5 83%
Over 2.5 60%
Over 3.5 37%
Both teams to score
62%
No goals (0–0)
6%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Águilas Doradas vs Jaguares

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Águilas Doradas58%1.72
Draw23%4.34
Jaguares19%5.35
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.560%1.67
Under 2.540%2.49
Both teams to scoreYes62%1.61
No38%2.64
Double chance1X (Águilas Doradas or draw)81%1.23
12 (either side)77%1.30
X2 (draw or Jaguares)42%2.39
Handicap -1Águilas Doradas win by 2+25%3.94
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Águilas Doradas and Jaguares recent form

Águilas Doradas 0W 3D 3L
Jaguares 1W 3D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Águilas Doradas at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-6-4
Win rate
33%
Goals for / match
1.33
Goals against / match
1.40
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 9 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).

Jaguares away

Record (W-D-L)
0-3-10
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.77
Goals against / match
2.23
Clean sheets
0 of 13
  • They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Águilas Doradas at home only, Jaguares away only.

Águilas Doradas vs Jaguares head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Águilas Doradas 4 · draws 4 · Jaguares 2.

Águilas DoradasDrawsJaguares
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-05-10Águilas Doradas0-0JaguaresCopa Colombia
2026-03-23Jaguares1-1Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2024-08-14Águilas Doradas1-0JaguaresPrimera A
2024-02-09Jaguares1-0Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2023-11-09Jaguares0-1Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2023-05-18Águilas Doradas3-0JaguaresPrimera A
2022-09-26Jaguares0-0Águilas DoradasPrimera A
2022-04-03Águilas Doradas1-1JaguaresPrimera A
2021-08-22Águilas Doradas1-2JaguaresPrimera A
2021-03-20Jaguares0-2Águilas DoradasPrimera A

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