Primera A · Clausura - 13

Deportes Tolima vs Chico

· Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Iwag· Referee Andres Rojas

Full time0 – 0

Alin prediction was Deportes Tolima to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 1 – 0

10% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Deportes TolimaDrawChico

Deportes Tolima vs Chico: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceDeportes TolimaDrawChico
Model53%26%21%
Market71%20%10%
Published66%21%13%
Edge-18%+7%+12%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.72 vs 1.02.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Deportes Tolima vs Chico odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Deportes Tolima, 10 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.32Now 1.31 -0.01
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Deportes Tolima1.321.31-0.01
Draw4.704.75+0.05
Chico9.509.50+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Deportes Tolima and Chico expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.72Deportes Tolima
1.02Chico
Total expected goals
2.74
Attack rating (Deportes Tolima / Chico)
0.94 / 0.96
Defence rating (Deportes Tolima / Chico)
1.07 / 1.29

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Deportes Tolima vs Chico score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.6% 5.5% 3.4% 1.1% 0.4% 1 10.0% 12.5% 5.8% 2.0% 0.6% 2 9.5% 9.7% 5.0% 1.7% 0.5% 3 5.5% 5.6% 2.8% 1.0% 0.3% 4+ 3.5% 3.5% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Deportes Tolima goals. Columns: Chico goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Deportes Tolima vs Chico goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 52%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
54%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Deportes Tolima vs Chico

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Deportes Tolima66%1.51
Draw21%4.72
Chico13%7.91
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552%1.94
Under 2.548%2.06
Both teams to scoreYes54%1.87
No46%2.16
Double chance1X (Deportes Tolima or draw)87%1.14
12 (either side)79%1.27
X2 (draw or Chico)34%2.96
Handicap -1Deportes Tolima win by 2+30%3.38
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Deportes Tolima and Chico recent form

Deportes Tolima 2W 2D 2L
Chico 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Deportes Tolima at home

Record (W-D-L)
11-4-3
Win rate
61%
Goals for / match
1.61
Goals against / match
0.83
Clean sheets
6 of 18
  • They have won 15 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 34 matches.
  • They have converted 7 of 9 penalties (78%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chico away

Record (W-D-L)
0-2-13
Win rate
0%
Goals for / match
0.27
Goals against / match
2.80
Clean sheets
0 of 15
  • They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
  • They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 29 matches.
  • 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Deportes Tolima at home only, Chico away only.

Deportes Tolima vs Chico head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Deportes Tolima 5 · draws 2 · Chico 3.

Deportes TolimaDrawsChico
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-23Chico1-1Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2025-09-15Deportes Tolima4-0ChicoPrimera A
2025-04-02Chico1-4Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2024-09-15Deportes Tolima2-1ChicoPrimera A
2024-03-01Chico1-1Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2023-09-30Deportes Tolima2-0ChicoPrimera A
2023-04-24Chico2-0Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2021-03-08Chico2-1Deportes TolimaPrimera A
2020-11-07Deportes Tolima2-0ChicoPrimera A
2018-09-08Chico2-1Deportes TolimaPrimera A

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