Primera A · Clausura - 13

Llaneros vs America de Cali

· Estadio Manuel Calle Lombana, Villavicencio· Referee Carlos Ortega

Full time1 – 2

Alin prediction was America de Cali to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 0 – 1

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
LlanerosDrawAmerica de Cali

Llaneros vs America de Cali: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLlanerosDrawAmerica de Cali
Model24%30%46%
Market27%29%43%
Published27%29%44%
Edge-3%0%+3%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.40 vs 0.95.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices America de Cali below the model: +3.0 percentage points of edge.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Llaneros vs America de Cali odds movement

Median bookmaker price on America de Cali, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.15Now 2.15 +0.00
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Llaneros3.443.38-0.06
Draw3.103.15+0.05
America de Cali2.152.15+0.00

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Llaneros and America de Cali expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

0.95Llaneros
1.40America de Cali
Total expected goals
2.35
Attack rating (Llaneros / America de Cali)
0.96 / 1.24
Defence rating (Llaneros / America de Cali)
1.14 / 0.70

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Llaneros vs America de Cali score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 10.8% 12.0% 9.3% 4.3% 2.1% 1 7.8% 14.0% 8.9% 4.1% 2.0% 2 4.3% 6.0% 4.2% 2.0% 0.9% 3 1.4% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.3% 4+ 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%

Rows: Llaneros goals. Columns: America de Cali goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Llaneros vs America de Cali goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 69%
Over 2.5 42%
Over 3.5 21%
Both teams to score
48%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Llaneros vs America de Cali

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Llaneros27%3.75
Draw29%3.39
America de Cali44%2.28
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.542%2.39
Under 2.558%1.72
Both teams to scoreYes48%2.10
No52%1.91
Double chance1X (Llaneros or draw)56%1.78
12 (either side)71%1.42
X2 (draw or America de Cali)73%1.36
Handicap -1America de Cali win by 2+23%4.37
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Llaneros and America de Cali recent form

Llaneros 1W 0D 5L
America de Cali 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Llaneros at home

Record (W-D-L)
4-7-3
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.21
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
4 of 14
  • They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

America de Cali away

Record (W-D-L)
6-3-7
Win rate
38%
Goals for / match
1.00
Goals against / match
1.19
Clean sheets
6 of 16
  • They have won 17 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
  • They have kept 16 clean sheets in 32 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 32 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
  • 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Llaneros at home only, America de Cali away only.

Llaneros vs America de Cali head-to-head

Last 5 meetings: Llaneros 0 · draws 4 · America de Cali 1.

LlanerosDrawsAmerica de Cali
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-26America de Cali0-0LlanerosPrimera A
2025-07-11Llaneros0-0America de CaliPrimera A
2025-01-25America de Cali4-3LlanerosPrimera A
2016-08-07Llaneros1-1America de CaliPrimera B
2016-03-22America de Cali2-2LlanerosPrimera B

Other Clausura - 13 fixtures