Primera A · Clausura - 13

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe

· Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin· Referee Jose Bautista

Full time0 – 1

Alin prediction was Independiente Medellin to win

Cblended with market oddsMissed

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Independiente MedellinDrawSanta Fe

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceIndependiente MedellinDrawSanta Fe
Model40%28%32%
Market49%28%24%
Published46%28%26%
Edge-8%0%+8%

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Independiente Medellin, 14 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 2.00Now 1.91 -0.09
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Independiente Medellin2.001.91-0.09
Draw3.203.35+0.15
Santa Fe3.743.89+0.15

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.46Independiente Medellin
1.27Santa Fe
Total expected goals
2.73
Attack rating (Independiente Medellin / Santa Fe)
1.23 / 1.11
Defence rating (Independiente Medellin / Santa Fe)
1.15 / 0.84

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 7.7% 7.1% 5.3% 2.2% 0.9% 1 8.3% 13.3% 7.7% 3.3% 1.4% 2 6.9% 8.8% 5.6% 2.4% 1.0% 3 3.4% 4.3% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5% 4+ 1.7% 2.2% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%

Rows: Independiente Medellin goals. Columns: Santa Fe goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 92%
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 51%
Over 3.5 29%
Both teams to score
56%
No goals (0–0)
8%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Independiente Medellin46%2.15
Draw28%3.61
Santa Fe26%3.88
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551%1.95
Under 2.549%2.05
Both teams to scoreYes56%1.77
No44%2.29
Double chance1X (Independiente Medellin or draw)74%1.35
12 (either side)72%1.38
X2 (draw or Santa Fe)54%1.87
Handicap -1Independiente Medellin win by 2+20%5.00
Push (exactly one goal)20%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Independiente Medellin and Santa Fe recent form

Independiente Medellin 2W 2D 2L
Santa Fe 3W 1D 2L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Independiente Medellin at home

Record (W-D-L)
8-3-5
Win rate
50%
Goals for / match
1.56
Goals against / match
1.25
Clean sheets
4 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 30 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).

Santa Fe away

Record (W-D-L)
5-8-3
Win rate
31%
Goals for / match
1.31
Goals against / match
1.12
Clean sheets
2 of 16
  • They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).

League matches this season before kick-off: Independiente Medellin at home only, Santa Fe away only.

Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe head-to-head

Last 9 meetings: Independiente Medellin 2 · draws 4 · Santa Fe 3.

Independiente MedellinDrawsSanta Fe
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-23Santa Fe2-1Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2025-10-21Independiente Medellin1-1Santa FePrimera A
2025-10-02Santa Fe0-3Independiente MedellinCopa Colombia
2025-09-24Independiente Medellin1-2Santa FeCopa Colombia
2025-06-29Independiente Medellin1-2Santa FePrimera A
2025-06-25Santa Fe0-0Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2025-04-15Santa Fe1-2Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2024-10-19Santa Fe1-1Independiente MedellinPrimera A
2024-02-11Independiente Medellin1-1Santa FePrimera A

Other Clausura - 13 fixtures