Primera A · Clausura - 13

Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira

· Estadio General Santander, Cucuta· Referee Diego Ulloa Angulo

Full time4 – 0

Alin prediction was Cucuta to win

Cblended with market oddsCorrect

Predicted score 1 – 0

12% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
CucutaDrawDeportivo Pereira

Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceCucutaDrawDeportivo Pereira
Model45%30%25%
Market53%26%21%
Published51%27%22%
Edge-8%+4%+4%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.36 vs 0.94.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.

Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page.

Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Cucuta, 12 snapshots since 2026-09-29.

Opened 1.58Now 1.74 +0.16
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Cucuta1.581.74+0.16
Draw3.823.60-0.22
Deportivo Pereira5.334.50-0.83

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Cucuta and Deportivo Pereira expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.36Cucuta
0.94Deportivo Pereira
Total expected goals
2.29
Attack rating (Cucuta / Deportivo Pereira)
0.88 / 0.71
Defence rating (Cucuta / Deportivo Pereira)
1.33 / 1.10

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 11.4% 8.1% 4.4% 1.4% 0.4% 1 12.4% 14.1% 6.0% 1.9% 0.5% 2 9.3% 8.7% 4.1% 1.3% 0.4% 3 4.2% 3.9% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 4+ 1.9% 1.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%

Rows: Cucuta goals. Columns: Deportivo Pereira goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 89%
Over 1.5 68%
Over 2.5 40%
Over 3.5 20%
Both teams to score
46%
No goals (0–0)
11%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Cucuta51%1.94
Draw27%3.71
Deportivo Pereira22%4.62
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.540%2.49
Under 2.560%1.67
Both teams to scoreYes46%2.15
No54%1.87
Double chance1X (Cucuta or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Deportivo Pereira)49%2.06
Handicap -1Cucuta win by 2+22%4.52
Push (exactly one goal)23%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Cucuta and Deportivo Pereira recent form

Cucuta 2W 1D 3L
Deportivo Pereira 0W 3D 3L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Cucuta at home

Record (W-D-L)
5-5-4
Win rate
36%
Goals for / match
1.36
Goals against / match
1.36
Clean sheets
3 of 14
  • They have won 6 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).

Deportivo Pereira away

Record (W-D-L)
1-6-8
Win rate
7%
Goals for / match
0.67
Goals against / match
1.53
Clean sheets
2 of 15
  • They have won 2 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 15 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Cucuta at home only, Deportivo Pereira away only.

Cucuta vs Deportivo Pereira head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Cucuta 5 · draws 1 · Deportivo Pereira 4.

CucutaDrawsDeportivo Pereira
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-03-24Deportivo Pereira2-2CucutaPrimera A
2020-02-02Deportivo Pereira2-0CucutaPrimera A
2018-08-21Deportivo Pereira0-1CucutaPrimera B
2018-03-21Cucuta2-1Deportivo PereiraPrimera B
2017-07-30Cucuta0-2Deportivo PereiraPrimera B
2017-05-30Deportivo Pereira1-2CucutaPrimera B
2017-05-21Cucuta1-0Deportivo PereiraPrimera B
2017-03-14Deportivo Pereira2-0CucutaPrimera B
2016-09-27Deportivo Pereira1-0CucutaPrimera B
2016-05-09Cucuta2-1Deportivo PereiraPrimera B

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