Once Caldas vs Llaneros: model vs market
| Source | Once Caldas | Draw | Llaneros |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Market | 61% | 23% | 15% |
| Published | 58% | 24% | 18% |
| Edge | -14% | +5% | +9% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.52 vs 1.03.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update.
Once Caldas vs Llaneros odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Once Caldas, 3 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Once Caldas | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 3.97 | -0.03 |
| Llaneros | 6.20 | 6.00 | -0.20 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Once Caldas and Llaneros expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.55
- Attack rating (Once Caldas / Llaneros)
- 0.90 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Once Caldas / Llaneros)
- 1.09 / 1.19
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Once Caldas vs Llaneros score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Once Caldas goals. Columns: Llaneros goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Once Caldas vs Llaneros goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Once Caldas vs Llaneros
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Once Caldas | 58% | 1.73 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Llaneros | 18% | 5.68 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47% | 2.13 |
| Under 2.5 | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.94 |
| No | 49% | 2.06 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Once Caldas or draw) | 82% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Llaneros) | 42% | 2.38 | |
| Handicap -1 | Once Caldas win by 2+ | 25% | 4.03 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Once Caldas and Llaneros recent form
Once Caldas
1W 1D 4L
Llaneros
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Once Caldas at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-3-5
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.75
- Goals against / match
- 1.31
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Llaneros away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.88
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 8 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Once Caldas at home only, Llaneros away only.
Once Caldas vs Llaneros head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Once Caldas 1 · draws 1 · Llaneros 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-30 | Llaneros | 1-1 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-10-19 | Llaneros | 2-0 | Once Caldas | Primera A |
| 2025-03-27 | Once Caldas | 1-0 | Llaneros | Primera A |
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