Santa Fe vs Jaguares preview
In the upcoming match between Santa Fe and Jaguares, the 1X2 probabilities show Santa Fe at 67% to win, while Jaguares sits at just 12%. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a 13% chance according to our model. Santa Fe's expected goals are 2.08 compared to Jaguares' 0.76, which suggests a strong offensive performance from the home side.
However, the recent form indicates some inconsistency for Santa Fe, with three wins and three losses in their last six matches. Jaguares, on the other hand, has struggled significantly, with no wins in their last six games. This could potentially impact the outcome, especially if Santa Fe fails to capitalize on their home advantage. The probabilities for Over 2.5 goals stand at 54%, while both teams to score is at 47%.
Santa Fe vs Jaguares: model vs market
| Source | Santa Fe | Draw | Jaguares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.08 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet). Best available price on the pick: 1.38, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Santa Fe vs Jaguares odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Santa Fe, 7 snapshots since 2026-08-23.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Fe | 1.34 | 1.35 | +0.01 |
| Draw | 4.75 | 4.50 | -0.25 |
| Jaguares | 8.60 | 9.00 | +0.40 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Santa Fe and Jaguares expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.84
- Attack rating (Santa Fe / Jaguares)
- 1.06 / 0.98
- Defence rating (Santa Fe / Jaguares)
- 0.78 / 1.40
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Santa Fe vs Jaguares score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Santa Fe goals. Columns: Jaguares goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Santa Fe vs Jaguares goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Santa Fe vs Jaguares
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Santa Fe | 67% | 1.49 |
| Draw | 21% | 4.71 | |
| Jaguares | 12% | 8.67 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54% | 1.85 |
| Under 2.5 | 46% | 2.18 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.11 |
| No | 53% | 1.90 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Santa Fe or draw) | 88% | 1.13 |
| 12 (either side) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| X2 (draw or Jaguares) | 33% | 3.05 | |
| Handicap -1 | Santa Fe win by 2+ | 44% | 2.30 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Santa Fe and Jaguares recent form
Santa Fe
4W 0D 2L
Jaguares
0W 3D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Santa Fe at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-7-3
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.78
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 18
- They have won 13 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 34 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 34 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Jaguares away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-11
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 0.71
- Goals against / match
- 2.21
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 14
- They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Santa Fe at home only, Jaguares away only.
Santa Fe vs Jaguares head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Santa Fe 5 · draws 2 · Jaguares 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-17 | Jaguares | 3-1 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2024-11-15 | Santa Fe | 3-0 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 2024-04-28 | Jaguares | 1-0 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2023-07-20 | Santa Fe | 1-0 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 2023-01-27 | Jaguares | 2-2 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2022-10-17 | Jaguares | 2-1 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2022-05-01 | Santa Fe | 4-0 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 2021-10-28 | Santa Fe | 3-1 | Jaguares | Primera A |
| 2021-02-08 | Jaguares | 0-1 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
| 2020-10-13 | Jaguares | 1-1 | Santa Fe | Primera A |
Other Clausura - 7 fixtures
- Bucaramanga vs Águilas Doradas 2026-10-13
Before and after this match
- Santa Fe, previous: Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe: odds and pick
- Jaguares, previous: Jaguares vs Deportes Tolima: odds and pick