Chico vs Atletico Nacional preview
Chico faces Atletico Nacional with a 17% chance of winning for Chico compared to 59% for Atletico Nacional. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, which occurs 11% of the time according to our model. Chico has an expected goals figure of 1.05, while Atletico Nacional sits at 1.44.
Chico's recent form shows 2 wins in their last 6 matches, while Atletico Nacional has 4 wins in the same period. Both teams to score stands at 51%, indicating a reasonable chance for goals from both sides. However, Chico's struggles against Atletico Nacional in their last 10 encounters, where they have only 1 win, could impact the outcome.
Chico vs Atletico Nacional: model vs market
| Source | Chico | Draw | Atletico Nacional |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24% | 29% | 47% |
| Market | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| Published | 17% | 25% | 58% |
| Edge | +9% | +6% | -15% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.43 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.60, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update.
Chico vs Atletico Nacional odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Atletico Nacional, 14 snapshots since 2026-10-11.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chico | 6.62 | 6.34 | -0.28 |
| Draw | 4.12 | 4.03 | -0.10 |
| Atletico Nacional | 1.45 | 1.49 | +0.04 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Chico and Atletico Nacional expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.38
- Attack rating (Chico / Atletico Nacional)
- 0.81 / 1.31
- Defence rating (Chico / Atletico Nacional)
- 1.10 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Chico vs Atletico Nacional score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Chico goals. Columns: Atletico Nacional goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Chico vs Atletico Nacional goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 10%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Chico vs Atletico Nacional
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chico | 17% | 5.91 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.06 | |
| Atletico Nacional | 58% | 1.71 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43% | 2.35 |
| Under 2.5 | 57% | 1.74 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.08 |
| No | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Chico or draw) | 42% | 2.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Atletico Nacional) | 83% | 1.20 | |
| Handicap -1 | Atletico Nacional win by 2+ | 24% | 4.23 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Chico and Atletico Nacional recent form
Chico
2W 1D 3L
Atletico Nacional
3W 2D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Chico at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-2-5
- Win rate
- 53%
- Goals for / match
- 1.40
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 15
- They have won 8 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 31 matches.
Atletico Nacional away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-0-8
- Win rate
- 58%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.21
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 19
- They have won 25 of their 36 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.4 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 36 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 36 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 7 penalties (71%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Chico at home only, Atletico Nacional away only.
Chico vs Atletico Nacional head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Chico 1 · draws 1 · Atletico Nacional 8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Atletico Nacional | 4-0 | Chico | Primera A |
| 2025-10-06 | Chico | 1-1 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2025-04-16 | Atletico Nacional | 4-1 | Chico | Primera A |
| 2024-09-29 | Atletico Nacional | 6-2 | Chico | Primera A |
| 2024-03-17 | Chico | 2-1 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2023-10-22 | Chico | 1-3 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2023-05-07 | Atletico Nacional | 3-1 | Chico | Primera A |
| 2021-02-07 | Atletico Nacional | 2-0 | Chico | Primera A |
| 2020-02-12 | Chico | 0-3 | Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| 2018-09-30 | Atletico Nacional | 3-2 | Chico | Primera A |
Before and after this match
- Chico, previous: Chico v Cucuta analysis
- Chico, next: Deportivo Pereira vs Chico prediction
- Atletico Nacional, previous: Atletico Nacional – Deportes Tolima, 2026-10-08
- Atletico Nacional, next: Cucuta vs Atletico Nacional: odds and pick