Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC preview
Delfin SC hosts Mushuc Runa SC with a 37% chance of winning, compared to 31% for Mushuc Runa SC and a 32% chance of a draw. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 14% probability. Both teams to score is at 35%, while Over 2.5 goals sits at just 25%.
Delfin SC's expected goals are 0.88, slightly ahead of Mushuc Runa SC's 0.85. Recent form shows Delfin SC with two draws and four losses in their last six matches, while Mushuc Runa SC has two draws and one win in the same span. The confidence grade is C, indicating some uncertainty in the predictions based on market odds.
Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC: model vs market
| Source | Delfin SC | Draw | Mushuc Runa SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 36% | 31% |
| Market | 39% | 30% | 30% |
| Published | 37% | 32% | 31% |
| Edge | -6% | +6% | +1% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Delfin SC, 31 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delfin SC | 2.62 | 2.34 | -0.28 |
| Draw | 3.00 | 3.00 | +0.00 |
| Mushuc Runa SC | 2.58 | 3.00 | +0.42 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 1.73
- Attack rating (Delfin SC / Mushuc Runa SC)
- 0.72 / 0.86
- Defence rating (Delfin SC / Mushuc Runa SC)
- 0.92 / 0.90
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Delfin SC goals. Columns: Mushuc Runa SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 35%
- No goals (0–0)
- 19%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Delfin SC | 37% | 2.67 |
| Draw | 32% | 3.13 | |
| Mushuc Runa SC | 31% | 3.27 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 25% | 3.98 |
| Under 2.5 | 75% | 1.34 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35% | 2.87 |
| No | 65% | 1.54 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Delfin SC or draw) | 69% | 1.44 |
| 12 (either side) | 68% | 1.47 | |
| X2 (draw or Mushuc Runa SC) | 63% | 1.60 | |
| Handicap -1 | Delfin SC win by 2+ | 12% | 8.47 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Delfin SC and Mushuc Runa SC recent form
Delfin SC
1W 2D 3L
Mushuc Runa SC
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Delfin SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-6
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.67
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 7 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Mushuc Runa SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-6-7
- Win rate
- 19%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.56
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 16
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Delfin SC at home only, Mushuc Runa SC away only.
Delfin SC vs Mushuc Runa SC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Delfin SC 5 · draws 1 · Mushuc Runa SC 4.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Mushuc Runa SC | 1-0 | Delfin SC | Liga Pro |
| 2026-05-03 | Delfin SC | 1-0 | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-06-15 | Delfin SC | 3-1 | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-02-18 | Mushuc Runa SC | 2-0 | Delfin SC | Liga Pro |
| 2024-11-08 | Delfin SC | 4-2 | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| 2024-05-19 | Mushuc Runa SC | 5-0 | Delfin SC | Liga Pro |
| 2023-09-16 | Mushuc Runa SC | 2-0 | Delfin SC | Liga Pro |
| 2023-04-16 | Delfin SC | 3-0 | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| 2022-09-25 | Delfin SC | 0-0 | Mushuc Runa SC | Liga Pro |
| 2022-04-09 | Mushuc Runa SC | 1-2 | Delfin SC | Liga Pro |
Other Relegation Group - 2 fixtures
- Manta FC vs Tecnico Universitario 2026-10-11
- Orense SC v Deportivo Cuenca — match page 2026-10-11