Manta FC vs Tecnico Universitario: model vs market
| Source | Manta FC | Draw | Tecnico Universitario |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | 40% | 30% | 29% |
| Published | 42% | 30% | 28% |
| Edge | +7% | -2% | -5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 1.05.
- The market prices Manta FC below the model: +6.7 percentage points of edge.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.44, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Manta FC vs Tecnico Universitario odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Manta FC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Manta FC | 2.20 | 2.25 | +0.05 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.00 | -0.10 |
| Tecnico Universitario | 3.21 | 3.10 | -0.11 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Manta FC and Tecnico Universitario expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.58
- Attack rating (Manta FC / Tecnico Universitario)
- 0.86 / 0.81
- Defence rating (Manta FC / Tecnico Universitario)
- 1.21 / 1.31
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Manta FC vs Tecnico Universitario score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Manta FC goals. Columns: Tecnico Universitario goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Manta FC vs Tecnico Universitario goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Manta FC vs Tecnico Universitario
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manta FC | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Tecnico Universitario | 28% | 3.55 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.92 |
| No | 48% | 2.09 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Manta FC or draw) | 72% | 1.39 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Tecnico Universitario) | 58% | 1.73 | |
| Handicap -1 | Manta FC win by 2+ | 25% | 4.07 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Manta FC and Tecnico Universitario recent form
Manta FC
2W 1D 3L
Tecnico Universitario
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Manta FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-4-8
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.56
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 5 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 18 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tecnico Universitario away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-10
- Win rate
- 27%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.40
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Manta FC at home only, Tecnico Universitario away only.
Manta FC vs Tecnico Universitario head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: Manta FC 3 · draws 0 · Tecnico Universitario 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Tecnico Universitario | 1-0 | Manta FC | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-05 | Manta FC | 0-2 | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro |
| 2025-11-29 | Tecnico Universitario | 2-3 | Manta FC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-10-19 | Manta FC | 2-0 | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro |
| 2025-08-03 | Tecnico Universitario | 3-1 | Manta FC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-04-11 | Manta FC | 2-1 | Tecnico Universitario | Liga Pro |
Other Relegation Group - 2 fixtures
- Delfin SC v Mushuc Runa SC — match page 2026-10-09
- Orense SC v Deportivo Cuenca — match page 2026-10-11