Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca: model vs market
| Source | Orense SC | Draw | Deportivo Cuenca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46% | 30% | 24% |
| Market | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Published | 45% | 29% | 27% |
| Edge | +1% | +2% | -3% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.94.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Orense SC, 4 snapshots since 2026-10-05.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orense SC | 1.95 | 2.05 | +0.10 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.25 | +0.00 |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 3.60 | 3.34 | -0.26 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Orense SC and Deportivo Cuenca expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.33
- Attack rating (Orense SC / Deportivo Cuenca)
- 0.98 / 0.62
- Defence rating (Orense SC / Deportivo Cuenca)
- 1.41 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Orense SC goals. Columns: Deportivo Cuenca goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orense SC | 45% | 2.23 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.50 | |
| Deportivo Cuenca | 27% | 3.76 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41% | 2.43 |
| Under 2.5 | 59% | 1.70 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.12 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Orense SC or draw) | 73% | 1.36 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Deportivo Cuenca) | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Handicap -1 | Orense SC win by 2+ | 23% | 4.41 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Orense SC and Deportivo Cuenca recent form
Orense SC
1W 0D 5L
Deportivo Cuenca
1W 3D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Orense SC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-3-6
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 1.53
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 15
- They have won 9 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Deportivo Cuenca away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 5-2-8
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.27
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Orense SC at home only, Deportivo Cuenca away only.
Orense SC vs Deportivo Cuenca head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Orense SC 3 · draws 1 · Deportivo Cuenca 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Orense SC | 2-0 | Deportivo Cuenca | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-22 | Deportivo Cuenca | 1-3 | Orense SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-08-31 | Deportivo Cuenca | 1-1 | Orense SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-05-10 | Orense SC | 1-0 | Deportivo Cuenca | Liga Pro |
Other Relegation Group - 2 fixtures
- Delfin SC v Mushuc Runa SC — match page 2026-10-09
- Manta FC vs Tecnico Universitario 2026-10-11