Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC preview
In the Liga Pro match between Emelec and Guayaquil City FC, Emelec has a 52% chance to win compared to Guayaquil City FC's 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% probability. Emelec's expected goals stand at 1.90, while Guayaquil City FC's is 1.47.
Both teams to score has a 66% likelihood, and Over 2.5 goals is at 65%. Recent form shows Emelec with a mixed record of W-L-L-L-W-D, while Guayaquil City FC has L-W-D-W-L-L. The head-to-head record is close, with 2 wins each and 6 draws in the last 10 matches. A draw could disrupt the expected outcomes based on current form and scoring probabilities.
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC: model vs market
| Source | Emelec | Draw | Guayaquil City FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 24% | 29% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
| Published | 52% | 26% | 22% |
| Edge | -2% | -1% | +2% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.90 vs 1.47.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Emelec, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emelec | 1.67 | 1.70 | +0.03 |
| Draw | 3.44 | 3.45 | +0.01 |
| Guayaquil City FC | 4.95 | 4.60 | -0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Emelec and Guayaquil City FC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.37
- Attack rating (Emelec / Guayaquil City FC)
- 1.03 / 1.19
- Defence rating (Emelec / Guayaquil City FC)
- 1.16 / 1.34
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Emelec goals. Columns: Guayaquil City FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 4%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Emelec | 52% | 1.92 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.86 | |
| Guayaquil City FC | 22% | 4.52 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65% | 1.53 |
| Under 2.5 | 35% | 2.89 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.51 |
| No | 34% | 2.98 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Emelec or draw) | 78% | 1.28 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.35 | |
| X2 (draw or Guayaquil City FC) | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Handicap -1 | Emelec win by 2+ | 27% | 3.72 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Emelec and Guayaquil City FC recent form
Emelec
2W 1D 3L
Guayaquil City FC
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Emelec at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 8-4-4
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 1.12
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Guayaquil City FC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-3-9
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 1.06
- Goals against / match
- 1.69
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 16
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Emelec at home only, Guayaquil City FC away only.
Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings: Emelec 2 · draws 6 · Guayaquil City FC 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Guayaquil City FC | 3-2 | Emelec | Liga Pro |
| 2026-08-10 | Guayaquil City FC | 0-0 | Emelec | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-18 | Emelec | 1-3 | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-10-22 | Guayaquil City FC | 0-0 | Emelec | Copa Ecuador |
| 2023-11-04 | Guayaquil City FC | 0-0 | Emelec | Liga Pro |
| 2023-05-30 | Emelec | 0-0 | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro |
| 2023-02-12 | Emelec | 2-0 | Guayaquil City FC | Friendlies Clubs |
| 2022-07-24 | Guayaquil City FC | 0-0 | Emelec | Liga Pro |
| 2022-03-05 | Emelec | 2-2 | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro |
| 2021-10-31 | Guayaquil City FC | 0-1 | Emelec | Liga Pro |
Other Placement Group - 4 fixtures
- Leones del Norte vs Libertad 2026-10-25
Before and after this match
- Emelec, previous: Leones del Norte vs Emelec: odds and pick
- Guayaquil City FC, previous: Libertad v Guayaquil City FC analysis