Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad preview
In the Liga Pro fixture between Guayaquil City FC and Libertad, the 1X2 probabilities show Guayaquil City FC at 41%, Libertad at 31%, and a draw at 28%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with an 8% chance. The model predicts a high likelihood of Over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams to score at 66%.
Guayaquil City FC has an expected goals figure of 1.51, while Libertad's is higher at 1.79. Recent form shows Guayaquil City FC with 3 wins and 3 losses in their last 6 matches, while Libertad has 4 wins and 2 losses. The head-to-head record indicates Guayaquil City FC has 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses against Libertad in their last 5 encounters.
Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad: model vs market
| Source | Guayaquil City FC | Draw | Libertad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 32% | 25% | 44% |
| Market | 48% | 28% | 24% |
| Published | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Edge | -4% | -1% | +5% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.00, recorded — the top price across the 6 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Guayaquil City FC, 2 snapshots since 2026-10-26.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guayaquil City FC | 2.08 | 1.92 | -0.17 |
| Draw | 3.25 | 3.30 | +0.05 |
| Libertad | 3.45 | 3.80 | +0.35 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Guayaquil City FC and Libertad expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.30
- Attack rating (Guayaquil City FC / Libertad)
- 1.16 / 1.38
- Defence rating (Guayaquil City FC / Libertad)
- 1.22 / 0.95
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Guayaquil City FC goals. Columns: Libertad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 66%
- No goals (0–0)
- 5%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Guayaquil City FC | 44% | 2.28 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.69 | |
| Libertad | 29% | 3.44 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64% | 1.56 |
| Under 2.5 | 36% | 2.79 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66% | 1.52 |
| No | 34% | 2.93 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Guayaquil City FC or draw) | 71% | 1.41 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Libertad) | 56% | 1.78 | |
| Handicap -1 | Guayaquil City FC win by 2+ | 15% | 6.55 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Guayaquil City FC and Libertad recent form
Guayaquil City FC
3W 1D 2L
Libertad
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Guayaquil City FC at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-7-3
- Win rate
- 41%
- Goals for / match
- 1.18
- Goals against / match
- 0.94
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Libertad away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-8
- Win rate
- 24%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.41
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Guayaquil City FC at home only, Libertad away only.
Guayaquil City FC vs Libertad head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Guayaquil City FC 1 · draws 2 · Libertad 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Libertad | 4-0 | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro |
| 2026-08-15 | Guayaquil City FC | 2-2 | Libertad | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-21 | Libertad | 0-1 | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro |
| 2023-10-10 | Libertad | 1-0 | Guayaquil City FC | Liga Pro |
| 2023-05-06 | Guayaquil City FC | 1-1 | Libertad | Liga Pro |
Other Placement Group - 5 fixtures
- Emelec v Leones del Norte — match page 2026-10-31
Before and after this match
- Guayaquil City FC, previous: Emelec vs Guayaquil City FC prediction
- Libertad, previous: Leones del Norte vs Libertad: odds and pick