Updated

Liga Pro · Placement Group - 6

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC

· Jaime Teran Olympic Stadium, Atuntaqui· Referee Kleber Andres Aroca Miranda

Alin prediction Leones del Norte to win

Cblended with market odds

Predicted score 2 – 1

9% — likeliest score with our pick

Win probability
Leones del NorteDrawGuayaquil City FC
  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.21.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Leones del Norte is the favourite, not a value bet.
Best market odds
Leones del Norte1.80 Draw3.65 Guayaquil City FC5.10

Price as of

Expected return at 1.80: -8.2% per unit staked

18+ · T&Cs apply · best price across 10 bookmakers, each at its own last update; the highlighted price is our pick.

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC preview

In the Liga Pro fixture between Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC, the 1X2 probabilities show Leones del Norte at 51%, while Guayaquil City FC is at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, with a 9% chance according to our model. Leones del Norte has an expected goals figure of 1.66, compared to Guayaquil City FC's 1.21.

Leones del Norte's recent form includes 2 wins and 4 losses, while Guayaquil City FC has 4 wins and 2 draws. The model indicates a 55% chance for Over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance for both teams to score. A draw or a strong performance from Guayaquil City FC could challenge the expected outcome.

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC: model vs market

1X2 probabilities: our model, the de-vigged market and the published blend
SourceLeones del NorteDrawGuayaquil City FC
Model47%26%27%
Market52%27%20%
Published51%27%22%
Edge-1%0%+2%
  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.66 vs 1.21.

Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.2% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC odds movement

Median bookmaker price on Leones del Norte, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-02.

Opened 1.82Now 1.75 -0.07
Median 1X2 prices, first and latest snapshot
SelectionFirstLatestMove
Leones del Norte1.821.75-0.07
Draw3.403.35-0.05
Guayaquil City FC4.204.55+0.35

A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.

Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC expected goals

The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.

1.66Leones del Norte
1.21Guayaquil City FC
Total expected goals
2.88
Attack rating (Leones del Norte / Guayaquil City FC)
1.08 / 1.05
Defence rating (Leones del Norte / Guayaquil City FC)
1.08 / 1.12

Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC score probability

Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.

01234+ 0 6.8% 5.7% 4.2% 1.7% 0.7% 1 8.2% 12.5% 6.9% 2.8% 1.1% 2 7.8% 9.5% 5.7% 2.3% 0.9% 3 4.3% 5.2% 3.2% 1.3% 0.5% 4+ 2.6% 3.2% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%

Rows: Leones del Norte goals. Columns: Guayaquil City FC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC goals probability

Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.

Over 0.5 93%
Over 1.5 79%
Over 2.5 55%
Over 3.5 32%
Both teams to score
58%
No goals (0–0)
7%

Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.

All markets for Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC

Published probability and fair odds per market
MarketSelectionProbabilityFair odds
1X2Leones del Norte51%1.96
Draw27%3.68
Guayaquil City FC22%4.58
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555%1.82
Under 2.545%2.21
Both teams to scoreYes58%1.72
No42%2.39
Double chance1X (Leones del Norte or draw)78%1.28
12 (either side)73%1.37
X2 (draw or Guayaquil City FC)49%2.04
Handicap -1Leones del Norte win by 2+25%3.96
Push (exactly one goal)21%—

Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.

Compare the market for this pick

Where to bet on this match in Kenya

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Leones del Norte and Guayaquil City FC recent form

Leones del Norte 2W 1D 3L
Guayaquil City FC 3W 2D 1L

Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.

Home vs away this season

Leones del Norte at home

Record (W-D-L)
7-5-5
Win rate
41%
Goals for / match
1.35
Goals against / match
1.00
Clean sheets
5 of 17
  • They have won 12 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Guayaquil City FC away

Record (W-D-L)
5-3-9
Win rate
29%
Goals for / match
1.06
Goals against / match
1.59
Clean sheets
3 of 17
  • They have won 12 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

League matches this season before kick-off: Leones del Norte at home only, Guayaquil City FC away only.

Leones del Norte vs Guayaquil City FC head-to-head

Last 10 meetings: Leones del Norte 3 · draws 5 · Guayaquil City FC 2.

Leones del NorteDrawsGuayaquil City FC
Previous meetings
DateHomeScoreAwayCompetition
2026-09-19Guayaquil City FC1-1Leones del NorteLiga Pro
2026-07-23Leones del Norte1-1Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro
2026-03-23Guayaquil City FC0-0Leones del NorteLiga Pro
2025-10-29Leones del Norte0-0Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B
2025-08-27Guayaquil City FC2-1Leones del NorteLiga Pro Serie B
2025-07-23Leones del Norte2-1Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B
2025-05-15Guayaquil City FC0-1Leones del NorteLiga Pro Serie B
2024-10-18Guayaquil City FC2-0Leones del NorteLiga Pro Serie B
2024-08-29Leones del Norte1-0Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B
2024-05-30Leones del Norte0-0Guayaquil City FCLiga Pro Serie B

Other Placement Group - 6 fixtures

Before and after this match

Prediction snapshot Leones del Norte to win Predicted score 2 – 1 C Bet on Leones del Norte
Our pick: Leones del Norte to win 18+ Bet Now