Libertad vs Emelec preview
In the Liga Pro fixture between Libertad and Emelec, the 1X2 probabilities suggest a strong lean towards Libertad at 49%, while Emelec sits at 24%. The most likely scoreline from our model is 2-0, which aligns with Libertad's expected goals of 1.93 compared to Emelec's 0.77.
However, there are factors that could challenge this prediction. Both teams to score stands at 47%, indicating a possibility that Emelec could find the net. Additionally, Libertad's recent form shows inconsistency with 2 wins in their last 6 matches, and Emelec has struggled, losing 5 of their last 6. This could affect the outcome, making it less predictable.
Libertad vs Emelec: model vs market
| Source | Libertad | Draw | Emelec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64% | 23% | 13% |
| Market | 44% | 29% | 28% |
| Published | 49% | 27% | 24% |
| Edge | +5% | -1% | -4% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Libertad below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.19, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.4% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Libertad vs Emelec odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Libertad, 11 snapshots since 2026-11-02.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Libertad | 2.40 | 2.09 | -0.31 |
| Draw | 3.10 | 3.17 | +0.07 |
| Emelec | 2.97 | 3.29 | +0.32 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Libertad and Emelec expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.70
- Attack rating (Libertad / Emelec)
- 1.26 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Libertad / Emelec)
- 0.86 / 1.11
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Libertad vs Emelec score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Libertad goals. Columns: Emelec goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Libertad vs Emelec goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 47%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Libertad vs Emelec
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Libertad | 49% | 2.06 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Emelec | 24% | 4.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47% | 2.13 |
| No | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Libertad or draw) | 76% | 1.32 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Emelec) | 51% | 1.95 | |
| Handicap -1 | Libertad win by 2+ | 39% | 2.54 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Libertad and Emelec recent form
Libertad
3W 1D 2L
Emelec
1W 0D 5L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Libertad at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-4
- Win rate
- 59%
- Goals for / match
- 1.59
- Goals against / match
- 0.88
- Clean sheets
- 8 of 17
- They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Emelec away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-5-9
- Win rate
- 18%
- Goals for / match
- 0.76
- Goals against / match
- 1.47
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 17
- They have won 11 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Libertad at home only, Emelec away only.
Libertad vs Emelec head-to-head
Last 9 meetings: Libertad 2 · draws 5 · Emelec 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Emelec | 1-2 | Libertad | Liga Pro |
| 2026-09-04 | Libertad | 1-1 | Emelec | Liga Pro |
| 2026-05-10 | Emelec | 1-1 | Libertad | Liga Pro |
| 2025-08-03 | Libertad | 1-2 | Emelec | Liga Pro |
| 2025-04-12 | Emelec | 1-1 | Libertad | Liga Pro |
| 2024-11-30 | Libertad | 2-1 | Emelec | Liga Pro |
| 2024-06-01 | Emelec | 0-0 | Libertad | Liga Pro |
| 2023-08-05 | Libertad | 0-0 | Emelec | Liga Pro |
| 2023-02-27 | Emelec | 2-0 | Libertad | Liga Pro |
Other Placement Group - 6 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Libertad, previous: Guayaquil City FC – Libertad, 2026-11-01
- Emelec, previous: Emelec vs Leones del Norte prediction