Leones del Norte vs Libertad preview
In the Liga Pro fixture between Leones del Norte and Libertad, the 1X2 probabilities show Leones del Norte at 39% to win, while Libertad is at 35%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with a 4% chance. Leones del Norte's expected goals stand at 0.73, significantly lower than Libertad's 1.86, which suggests they may struggle to find the net.
Both teams to score has a 45% likelihood and Over 2.5 goals is at 48%. This indicates that while goals are possible, they are not guaranteed. Leones del Norte's recent form shows 1 win in their last 5 matches, while Libertad has 4 wins in the same period. If Leones del Norte can improve their scoring, the match could be more competitive than expected.
Leones del Norte vs Libertad: model vs market
| Source | Leones del Norte | Draw | Libertad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 13% | 24% | 63% |
| Market | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Published | 38% | 27% | 35% |
| Edge | -8% | -1% | +9% |
Edge = our published probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the 10 books we record, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -21.3% per unit staked (published probability × price − 1).
Leones del Norte vs Libertad odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Leones del Norte, 12 snapshots since 2026-10-19.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leones del Norte | 1.91 | 1.98 | +0.07 |
| Draw | 3.36 | 3.30 | -0.06 |
| Libertad | 3.73 | 3.55 | -0.18 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Leones del Norte and Libertad expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.59
- Attack rating (Leones del Norte / Libertad)
- 0.78 / 1.44
- Defence rating (Leones del Norte / Libertad)
- 1.21 / 0.69
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Leones del Norte vs Libertad score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Leones del Norte goals. Columns: Libertad goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Leones del Norte vs Libertad goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 45%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Leones del Norte vs Libertad
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Leones del Norte | 38% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.73 | |
| Libertad | 35% | 2.84 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45% | 2.23 |
| No | 55% | 1.81 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Leones del Norte or draw) | 65% | 1.54 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Libertad) | 62% | 1.61 | |
| Handicap -1 | Leones del Norte win by 2+ | 4% | 25.48 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 9% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Leones del Norte and Libertad recent form
Leones del Norte
1W 2D 3L
Libertad
4W 1D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Leones del Norte at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-5-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.19
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 16
- They have won 10 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Libertad away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-5-7
- Win rate
- 25%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 14 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Leones del Norte at home only, Libertad away only.
Leones del Norte vs Libertad head-to-head
Last 3 meetings: Leones del Norte 1 · draws 1 · Libertad 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Libertad | 3-0 | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro |
| 2026-07-04 | Libertad | 1-3 | Leones del Norte | Liga Pro |
| 2026-02-28 | Leones del Norte | 1-1 | Libertad | Liga Pro |
Other Placement Group - 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
- Leones del Norte, previous: Leones del Norte vs Emelec: odds and pick
- Libertad, previous: Libertad v Guayaquil City FC analysis