Independiente del Valle vs Aucas: model vs market
| Source | Independiente del Valle | Draw | Aucas |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 53% | 27% | 21% |
| Market | 61% | 23% | 16% |
| Published | 59% | 24% | 17% |
| Edge | -9% | +4% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.67 vs 0.97.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Independiente del Valle, 30 snapshots since 2026-09-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 1.47 | 1.51 | +0.04 |
| Draw | 4.00 | 4.10 | +0.10 |
| Aucas | 6.26 | 5.83 | -0.43 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Independiente del Valle and Aucas expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.64
- Attack rating (Independiente del Valle / Aucas)
- 1.52 / 0.84
- Defence rating (Independiente del Valle / Aucas)
- 1.08 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Independiente del Valle goals. Columns: Aucas goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 52%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente del Valle | 59% | 1.69 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.23 | |
| Aucas | 17% | 5.83 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 |
| Under 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52% | 1.94 |
| No | 48% | 2.07 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Independiente del Valle or draw) | 83% | 1.21 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.31 | |
| X2 (draw or Aucas) | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente del Valle win by 2+ | 29% | 3.43 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Independiente del Valle and Aucas recent form
Independiente del Valle
2W 2D 2L
Aucas
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Independiente del Valle at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 11-2-2
- Win rate
- 73%
- Goals for / match
- 2.40
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 23 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 11 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Aucas away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 6-6-3
- Win rate
- 40%
- Goals for / match
- 0.93
- Goals against / match
- 0.80
- Clean sheets
- 9 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: Independiente del Valle at home only, Aucas away only.
Independiente del Valle vs Aucas head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Independiente del Valle 3 · draws 1 · Aucas 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Aucas | 0-3 | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
| 2026-03-14 | Independiente del Valle | 2-2 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2025-07-19 | Independiente del Valle | 2-1 | Aucas | Liga Pro |
| 2025-03-28 | Aucas | 1-2 | Independiente del Valle | Liga Pro |
Other Championship Group - 2 fixtures
- Universidad Catolica vs Macara 2026-10-11
- LDU de Quito v Barcelona SC — match page 2026-10-11