LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC: model vs market
| Source | LDU de Quito | Draw | Barcelona SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41% | 33% | 26% |
| Market | 57% | 25% | 17% |
| Published | 53% | 27% | 19% |
| Edge | -16% | +8% | +8% |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.64, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC odds movement
Median bookmaker price on LDU de Quito, 30 snapshots since 2026-09-22.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| LDU de Quito | 1.65 | 1.60 | -0.04 |
| Draw | 3.55 | 3.60 | +0.05 |
| Barcelona SC | 5.00 | 5.28 | +0.28 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
LDU de Quito and Barcelona SC expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.00
- Attack rating (LDU de Quito / Barcelona SC)
- 1.02 / 0.88
- Defence rating (LDU de Quito / Barcelona SC)
- 0.91 / 0.83
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: LDU de Quito goals. Columns: Barcelona SC goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 40%
- No goals (0–0)
- 15%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | LDU de Quito | 53% | 1.88 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.66 | |
| Barcelona SC | 19% | 5.15 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32% | 3.10 |
| Under 2.5 | 68% | 1.48 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40% | 2.48 |
| No | 60% | 1.68 | |
| Double chance | 1X (LDU de Quito or draw) | 81% | 1.24 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.38 | |
| X2 (draw or Barcelona SC) | 47% | 2.14 | |
| Handicap -1 | LDU de Quito win by 2+ | 18% | 5.53 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
LDU de Quito and Barcelona SC recent form
LDU de Quito
2W 2D 2L
Barcelona SC
2W 3D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
LDU de Quito at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-5-4
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 0.94
- Goals against / match
- 0.75
- Clean sheets
- 7 of 16
- They have won 13 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
Barcelona SC away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-7-6
- Win rate
- 13%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 5 of 15
- They have won 11 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
League matches this season before kick-off: LDU de Quito at home only, Barcelona SC away only.
LDU de Quito vs Barcelona SC head-to-head
Last 6 meetings: LDU de Quito 4 · draws 1 · Barcelona SC 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Barcelona SC | 0-1 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-04 | LDU de Quito | 0-2 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-11-23 | Barcelona SC | 2-2 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2025-10-18 | LDU de Quito | 3-0 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
| 2025-07-25 | Barcelona SC | 0-1 | LDU de Quito | Liga Pro |
| 2025-06-19 | LDU de Quito | 3-1 | Barcelona SC | Liga Pro |
Other Championship Group - 2 fixtures
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