Universidad Catolica vs Macara: model vs market
| Source | Universidad Catolica | Draw | Macara |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 51% | 25% | 24% |
| Market | 57% | 24% | 19% |
| Published | 55% | 24% | 20% |
| Edge | -6% | 0% | +5% |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 1.22.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the blend of both that backs every number on this page. Best available price on the pick: 1.68, recorded — the top price across the 7 books we record, each at its own last update.
Universidad Catolica vs Macara odds movement
Median bookmaker price on Universidad Catolica, 31 snapshots since 2026-09-21.
| Selection | First | Latest | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Universidad Catolica | 1.58 | 1.60 | +0.02 |
| Draw | 3.74 | 3.74 | +0.00 |
| Macara | 5.31 | 4.85 | -0.46 |
A shortening price means the market has moved towards that outcome. Median across all recorded bookmakers, not one book's line.
Universidad Catolica and Macara expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 3.07
- Attack rating (Universidad Catolica / Macara)
- 1.33 / 1.27
- Defence rating (Universidad Catolica / Macara)
- 0.90 / 1.03
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Universidad Catolica vs Macara score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Universidad Catolica goals. Columns: Macara goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Universidad Catolica vs Macara goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 60%
- No goals (0–0)
- 6%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Universidad Catolica vs Macara
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Universidad Catolica | 55% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 | |
| Macara | 20% | 4.98 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59% | 1.69 |
| Under 2.5 | 41% | 2.45 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60% | 1.66 |
| No | 40% | 2.53 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Universidad Catolica or draw) | 80% | 1.25 |
| 12 (either side) | 76% | 1.32 | |
| X2 (draw or Macara) | 45% | 2.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Universidad Catolica win by 2+ | 30% | 3.39 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Universidad Catolica and Macara recent form
Universidad Catolica
3W 2D 1L
Macara
4W 0D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Universidad Catolica at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 10-3-2
- Win rate
- 67%
- Goals for / match
- 2.47
- Goals against / match
- 0.93
- Clean sheets
- 6 of 15
- They have won 14 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 8 penalties (62%).
Macara away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 7-3-6
- Win rate
- 44%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.25
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 16
- They have won 15 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Universidad Catolica at home only, Macara away only.
Universidad Catolica vs Macara head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Universidad Catolica 3 · draws 1 · Macara 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Macara | 1-1 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2026-04-24 | Universidad Catolica | 4-0 | Macara | Liga Pro |
| 2025-07-27 | Macara | 1-4 | Universidad Catolica | Liga Pro |
| 2025-04-06 | Universidad Catolica | 1-0 | Macara | Liga Pro |