Inter vs Municipal Limeño preview
In the Primera Division match between Inter and Municipal Limeño, the 1X2 probabilities show Inter at 47%, while Municipal Limeño sits at 25%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, with an 11% chance according to our model. Inter's expected goals are 1.50, compared to Municipal Limeño's 1.03, indicating a potential edge for the home side.
However, recent form could challenge this prediction. Inter has drawn four of their last five matches, while Municipal Limeño has lost four of their last five, with one draw. Both teams to score stands at 51%, suggesting a possibility for goals from both sides, which could affect the outcome. The confidence grade is C, reflecting some uncertainty in the forecast.
Inter vs Municipal Limeño: model vs market
| Source | Inter | Draw | Municipal Limeño |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.03.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Inter and Municipal Limeño expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.53
- Attack rating (Inter / Municipal Limeño)
- 1.00 / 0.99
- Defence rating (Inter / Municipal Limeño)
- 0.81 / 1.10
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inter vs Municipal Limeño score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inter goals. Columns: Municipal Limeño goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inter vs Municipal Limeño goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 9%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inter vs Municipal Limeño
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inter | 47% | 2.13 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.53 | |
| Municipal Limeño | 25% | 4.05 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46% | 2.15 |
| Under 2.5 | 54% | 1.87 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.95 |
| No | 49% | 2.05 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inter or draw) | 75% | 1.33 |
| 12 (either side) | 72% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Municipal Limeño) | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 24% | 4.11 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Inter and Municipal Limeño recent form
Inter
1W 4D 1L
Municipal Limeño
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inter at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-5-0
- Win rate
- 29%
- Goals for / match
- 1.43
- Goals against / match
- 0.71
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Municipal Limeño away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-0-5
- Win rate
- 38%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.62
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 8
- They have won 5 of their 14 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 14 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 14 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inter at home only, Municipal Limeño away only.
Inter vs Municipal Limeño head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Inter 3 · draws 1 · Municipal Limeño 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Municipal Limeño | 0-1 | Inter | Primera Division |
| 2026-05-11 | Inter | 2-1 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2026-05-08 | Municipal Limeño | 2-0 | Inter | Primera Division |
| 2026-04-26 | Inter | 2-1 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-01 | Municipal Limeño | 2-1 | Inter | Primera Division |
| 2025-11-09 | Inter | 1-1 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-07 | Municipal Limeño | 1-0 | Inter | Primera Division |
Before and after this match
- Inter, previous: Alianza vs Inter prediction
- Municipal Limeño, previous: Municipal Limeño vs Firpo: odds and pick