Alianza vs Inter: model vs market
| Source | Alianza | Draw | Inter |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 33% | 29% | 38% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Alianza and Inter expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.65
- Attack rating (Alianza / Inter)
- 1.16 / 1.00
- Defence rating (Alianza / Inter)
- 1.08 / 0.81
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Alianza vs Inter score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Alianza goals. Columns: Inter goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Alianza vs Inter goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 55%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Alianza vs Inter
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alianza | 33% | 3.01 |
| Draw | 29% | 3.51 | |
| Inter | 38% | 2.61 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50% | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 | 50% | 1.98 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55% | 1.81 |
| No | 45% | 2.23 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Alianza or draw) | 62% | 1.62 |
| 12 (either side) | 71% | 1.40 | |
| X2 (draw or Inter) | 67% | 1.50 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inter win by 2+ | 18% | 5.45 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Alianza and Inter recent form
Alianza
2W 4D 0L
Inter
1W 4D 1L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Alianza at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-4-0
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.71
- Goals against / match
- 1.14
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 11 matches.
Inter away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.29
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 4 of 7
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Alianza at home only, Inter away only.
Alianza vs Inter head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Alianza 1 · draws 1 · Inter 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Inter | 2-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-15 | Inter | 2-0 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2026-01-29 | Alianza | 1-3 | Inter | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-22 | Inter | 0-1 | Alianza | Primera Division |
| 2025-07-20 | Alianza | 0-0 | Inter | Primera Division |
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