Atletico Balboa vs FAS: model vs market
| Source | Atletico Balboa | Draw | FAS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14% | 22% | 63% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 14% | 22% | 63% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 0.85.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Atletico Balboa and FAS expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.87
- Attack rating (Atletico Balboa / FAS)
- 0.87 / 1.29
- Defence rating (Atletico Balboa / FAS)
- 1.23 / 0.72
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Atletico Balboa vs FAS score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Atletico Balboa goals. Columns: FAS goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Atletico Balboa vs FAS goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 51%
- No goals (0–0)
- 7%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Atletico Balboa vs FAS
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atletico Balboa | 14% | 7.12 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.45 | |
| FAS | 63% | 1.57 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55% | 1.82 |
| Under 2.5 | 45% | 2.21 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 51% | 1.97 |
| No | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Atletico Balboa or draw) | 37% | 2.74 |
| 12 (either side) | 78% | 1.29 | |
| X2 (draw or FAS) | 86% | 1.16 | |
| Handicap -1 | FAS win by 2+ | 40% | 2.50 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Atletico Balboa and FAS recent form
Atletico Balboa
1W 1D 4L
FAS
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Atletico Balboa at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 0.83
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
FAS away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 4-1-2
- Win rate
- 57%
- Goals for / match
- 1.86
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 7
- They have won 7 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
League matches this season before kick-off: Atletico Balboa at home only, FAS away only.
Atletico Balboa vs FAS head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Atletico Balboa 0 · draws 1 · FAS 0.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | FAS | 1-1 | Atletico Balboa | Primera Division |
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