Águila vs Isidro Metapán: model vs market
| Source | Águila | Draw | Isidro Metapán |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26% | 27% | 46% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 26% | 27% | 46% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 1.16.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Águila and Isidro Metapán expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.76
- Attack rating (Águila / Isidro Metapán)
- 1.00 / 1.06
- Defence rating (Águila / Isidro Metapán)
- 1.18 / 0.85
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Águila vs Isidro Metapán score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Águila goals. Columns: Isidro Metapán goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Águila vs Isidro Metapán goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 56%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Águila vs Isidro Metapán
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Águila | 26% | 3.78 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 | |
| Isidro Metapán | 46% | 2.16 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 2.5 | 48% | 2.08 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| No | 44% | 2.27 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Águila or draw) | 54% | 1.87 |
| 12 (either side) | 73% | 1.37 | |
| X2 (draw or Isidro Metapán) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| Handicap -1 | Isidro Metapán win by 2+ | 25% | 4.06 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
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| 1 |  |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Águila and Isidro Metapán recent form
Águila
3W 1D 2L
Isidro Metapán
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Águila at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.33
- Goals against / match
- 1.67
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
Isidro Metapán away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 12 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Águila at home only, Isidro Metapán away only.
Águila vs Isidro Metapán head-to-head
Last 7 meetings: Águila 2 · draws 2 · Isidro Metapán 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Isidro Metapán | 2-1 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-18 | Águila | 1-1 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2026-01-22 | Isidro Metapán | 4-2 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2025-11-30 | Isidro Metapán | 0-2 | Águila | Primera Division |
| 2025-11-23 | Águila | 2-1 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-25 | Águila | 1-2 | Isidro Metapán | Primera Division |
| 2025-07-24 | Isidro Metapán | 0-0 | Águila | Primera Division |
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