Inca Aruba vs Platense preview
Inca Aruba faces Platense with a 37% chance of winning according to the model 1X2 probabilities. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, which occurs 11% of the time. However, the recent form of Platense, with only one win in their last six matches, could impact their performance.
The chances for Over 2.5 goals stand at 40%, while both teams to score is at 48%. Expected goals are close, with Inca Aruba at 1.19 and Platense at 1.10. The confidence grade is C, indicating that these probabilities are based solely on the model and may not reflect the actual match outcome.
Inca Aruba vs Platense: model vs market
| Source | Inca Aruba | Draw | Platense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 37% | 31% | 32% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Inca Aruba and Platense expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.29
- Attack rating (Inca Aruba / Platense)
- 0.84 / 0.82
- Defence rating (Inca Aruba / Platense)
- 1.05 / 1.04
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Inca Aruba vs Platense score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Inca Aruba goals. Columns: Platense goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Inca Aruba vs Platense goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 48%
- No goals (0–0)
- 11%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Inca Aruba vs Platense
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Inca Aruba | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 31% | 3.22 | |
| Platense | 32% | 3.11 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 40% | 2.49 |
| Under 2.5 | 60% | 1.67 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48% | 2.09 |
| No | 52% | 1.91 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Inca Aruba or draw) | 68% | 1.47 |
| 12 (either side) | 69% | 1.45 | |
| X2 (draw or Platense) | 63% | 1.58 | |
| Handicap -1 | Inca Aruba win by 2+ | 16% | 6.17 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
| 4 |  |
200% first deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
|
Get offer |
18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Inca Aruba and Platense recent form
Inca Aruba
3W 2D 1L
Platense
1W 1D 4L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Inca Aruba at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 3-2-2
- Win rate
- 43%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.43
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 7
- They have won 4 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Platense away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 1.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 6
- They have won 3 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Inca Aruba at home only, Platense away only.
Inca Aruba vs Platense head-to-head
Last 1 meetings: Inca Aruba 0 · draws 0 · Platense 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Platense | 2-0 | Inca Aruba | Primera Division |
Other Apertura - 15 fixtures
- Fuerte San Francisco vs Cacahuatique 2026-10-10
- Alianza v Inter — match page 2026-10-11
- Águila vs Isidro Metapán — team news & stats 2026-10-11
- Atletico Balboa vs FAS 2026-10-11
- Municipal Limeño v Firpo — match page 2026-10-11