Municipal Limeño vs Firpo: model vs market
| Source | Municipal Limeño | Draw | Firpo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 16% | 25% | 59% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Municipal Limeño and Firpo expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.70
- Attack rating (Municipal Limeño / Firpo)
- 0.99 / 1.30
- Defence rating (Municipal Limeño / Firpo)
- 1.11 / 0.64
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Municipal Limeño vs Firpo score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Municipal Limeño goals. Columns: Firpo goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Municipal Limeño vs Firpo goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 50%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Municipal Limeño vs Firpo
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Municipal Limeño | 16% | 6.16 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.07 | |
| Firpo | 59% | 1.69 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.97 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.03 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50% | 2.01 |
| No | 50% | 1.99 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Municipal Limeño or draw) | 41% | 2.45 |
| 12 (either side) | 75% | 1.33 | |
| X2 (draw or Firpo) | 84% | 1.19 | |
| Handicap -1 | Firpo win by 2+ | 35% | 2.84 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
First deposit bonus18+. New customers only. T&Cs apply. |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Municipal Limeño and Firpo recent form
Municipal Limeño
1W 1D 4L
Firpo
4W 2D 0L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Municipal Limeño at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-2-2
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.17
- Goals against / match
- 1.00
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 5 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 13 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Firpo away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-3-1
- Win rate
- 33%
- Goals for / match
- 1.50
- Goals against / match
- 1.17
- Clean sheets
- 2 of 6
- They have won 7 of their 12 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 12 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Municipal Limeño at home only, Firpo away only.
Municipal Limeño vs Firpo head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Municipal Limeño 1 · draws 1 · Firpo 3.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Firpo | 2-0 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-15 | Municipal Limeño | 2-1 | Firpo | Primera Division |
| 2026-01-18 | Firpo | 2-0 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2025-09-22 | Firpo | 1-1 | Municipal Limeño | Primera Division |
| 2025-07-20 | Municipal Limeño | 1-3 | Firpo | Primera Division |
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