Fuerte San Francisco vs Cacahuatique: model vs market
| Source | Fuerte San Francisco | Draw | Cacahuatique |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.41 vs 0.81.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Fuerte San Francisco and Cacahuatique expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.22
- Attack rating (Fuerte San Francisco / Cacahuatique)
- 0.60 / 0.95
- Defence rating (Fuerte San Francisco / Cacahuatique)
- 1.16 / 0.99
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Cacahuatique score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Fuerte San Francisco goals. Columns: Cacahuatique goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Cacahuatique goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 43%
- No goals (0–0)
- 12%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Fuerte San Francisco vs Cacahuatique
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Fuerte San Francisco | 20% | 4.92 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.36 | |
| Cacahuatique | 50% | 2.00 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38% | 2.62 |
| Under 2.5 | 62% | 1.62 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43% | 2.32 |
| No | 57% | 1.76 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Fuerte San Francisco or draw) | 50% | 2.00 |
| 12 (either side) | 70% | 1.42 | |
| X2 (draw or Cacahuatique) | 80% | 1.25 | |
| Handicap -1 | Cacahuatique win by 2+ | 25% | 3.96 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
Welcome offers as each operator publishes them — compare the terms before your first deposit
| # | Betting site | Welcome offer | Why it is here | Visit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
50% free bet up to KES 2,500 on your first deposit18+. New customers only. Min first deposit KES 100. Free bet needs 4+ selections at odds 1.70+ within 7 days. T&Cs apply. |
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| 2 |  |
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| 3 |  |
100% up to KES 19,000 on your first deposit18+. Min deposit KES 150. Bonus wagered 5x on accumulators (3+ selections, odds 1.40+). T&Cs apply. |
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18+ only. Offers and terms are set by each operator and can change; the operator’s own terms decide. Gamble responsibly.
Fuerte San Francisco and Cacahuatique recent form
Fuerte San Francisco
0W 3D 3L
Cacahuatique
2W 1D 3L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Fuerte San Francisco at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-2-3
- Win rate
- 17%
- Goals for / match
- 0.67
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 6
- They have won 1 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 13 matches.
Cacahuatique away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 1-3-1
- Win rate
- 20%
- Goals for / match
- 0.60
- Goals against / match
- 0.60
- Clean sheets
- 3 of 5
- They have won 2 of their 13 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.2 goals per game at home against 0.6 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 13 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 13 matches.
League matches this season before kick-off: Fuerte San Francisco at home only, Cacahuatique away only.
Fuerte San Francisco vs Cacahuatique head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Fuerte San Francisco 1 · draws 2 · Cacahuatique 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Cacahuatique | 0-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2026-03-29 | Fuerte San Francisco | 0-1 | Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| 2026-02-01 | Cacahuatique | 0-0 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
| 2025-10-05 | Fuerte San Francisco | 1-3 | Cacahuatique | Primera Division |
| 2025-08-03 | Cacahuatique | 0-2 | Fuerte San Francisco | Primera Division |
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