Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers preview
Burnley faces Wolverhampton Wanderers with a 21% chance of winning compared to 53% for Wolverhampton. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a 10% probability. Wolverhampton's recent form shows 4 wins in their last 6 matches, while Burnley has only managed 1 draw and 5 losses in the same period.
Both teams have a 53% chance of scoring, and there's a 51% probability for Over 2.5 goals. Burnley's expected goals sit at 1.01, while Wolverhampton's is higher at 1.71. A lack of goals from Burnley could lead to a different outcome than predicted. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating some uncertainty in the forecast.
Why this pick: Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
Model inputs: per-match averages over each side's last 10 played matches (Burnley 10, Wolverhampton Wanderers 10). PPDA — lower means more intense pressing.
xG and npxG (non-penalty) per match, deep completions (passes received within ~20 yards of goal) and xPTS (expected points) from Understat match data. Bold marks the stronger side on each line.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: model vs market
| Source | Burnley | Draw | Wolverhampton Wanderers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Published | 21% | 26% | 53% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 1.01.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Edge = model probability minus the de-vigged market probability. Published = the model alone (no market price recorded yet).
Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers expected goals
The goal rate the model gives each side in this fixture, from xG-based attack and defence ratings.
- Total expected goals
- 2.72
- Attack rating (Burnley / Wolverhampton Wanderers)
- 0.79 / 1.14
- Defence rating (Burnley / Wolverhampton Wanderers)
- 1.24 / 0.89
Ratings are relative to the league average (1.00); lower defence rating = fewer goals conceded per match.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers score probability
Every scoreline the model gives this match, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker = likelier.
Rows: Burnley goals. Columns: Wolverhampton Wanderers goals. Outlined cell = most likely scoreline.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers goals probability
Chance of the match clearing each total, read off the same score matrix as the heatmap.
- Both teams to score
- 53%
- No goals (0–0)
- 8%
Over 4.5 and higher fall inside the 4+ buckets and cannot be read off a 0–4 grid, so they are not shown.
All markets for Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Market | Selection | Probability | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Burnley | 21% | 4.76 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.82 | |
| Wolverhampton Wanderers | 53% | 1.89 | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 51% | 1.96 |
| Under 2.5 | 49% | 2.04 | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| No | 47% | 2.13 | |
| Double chance | 1X (Burnley or draw) | 47% | 2.12 |
| 12 (either side) | 74% | 1.36 | |
| X2 (draw or Wolverhampton Wanderers) | 79% | 1.27 | |
| Handicap -1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers win by 2+ | 30% | 3.37 |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23% | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability — the break-even price implied by the published probability. Correct-score probabilities are on the heatmap above.
Where to bet on this match in Kenya
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Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers recent form
Burnley
0W 3D 3L
Wolverhampton Wanderers
3W 1D 2L
Last 6 completed matches, all competitions, newest on the right.
Home vs away this season
Burnley at home
- Record (W-D-L)
- 0-3-1
- Win rate
- 0%
- Goals for / match
- 1.25
- Goals against / match
- 1.50
- Clean sheets
- 0 of 4
- They have won 0 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Wolverhampton Wanderers away
- Record (W-D-L)
- 2-1-1
- Win rate
- 50%
- Goals for / match
- 2.00
- Goals against / match
- 1.75
- Clean sheets
- 1 of 4
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
League matches this season before kick-off: Burnley at home only, Wolverhampton Wanderers away only.
Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers head-to-head
Last 4 meetings: Burnley 1 · draws 2 · Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Burnley | 1-1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League |
| 2025-10-26 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2-3 | Burnley | Premier League |
| 2024-04-02 | Burnley | 1-1 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League |
| 2023-12-05 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1-0 | Burnley | Premier League |
Before and after this match
- Burnley, previous: Burnley vs Charlton: odds and pick
- Wolverhampton Wanderers, previous: Wolverhampton Wanderers – Bolton, 2026-10-13